Projecting Pirates' rotation if they pull off Mitch Keller trade at Winter Meetings

Pittsburgh Pirates’ stalwart Mitch Keller may get traded this offseason. There have been plenty of rumors over the last year regarding Keller, and moving him would send a massive shockwave throughout the entire pitching depth chart. If Keller is traded, that will open up a rotation spot, with many routes the Pirates could take to fill it.

Keller has been integral to the Pirates’ rotation. Since 2022, he has made at least 29 starts each season, with three straight years of at least 175 innings. This past year, Keller tossed 176.1 frames while putting up a respectable 4.19 ERA, 4.02 FIP, and 1.26 WHIP. The right-hander only struck out 20% of the batters he faced, but offset that with a strong 6.8% walk rate. He also limited home runs at an above-average rate, with a 1.07 HR/9 ratio, and a barrel percentage of 7.8%.

If Keller is traded, 2025 standout rookie Mike Burrows is all but guaranteed a rotation spot. Burrows finished off his rookie campaign with a 3.94 ERA, 4.00 FIP, and 1.24 WHIP while striking out 24.1% of batters, notching a 7.8% walk rate over 96 innings. He was especially promising down the stretch, putting up a 3.27 ERA, a strikeout rate of 25.1%, and a walk rate of 6.4% after the All-Star break. His Stuff+ went from a lowly 91 prior to the All-Star Game to a solid 99 afterwards.

As things currently stand, Burrows has the inside track for the fifth and final rotation spot for the Pirates, especially now that they traded Johan Oviedo. However, if Keller is sent packing, that makes Burrows the Pirates’ fourth starter, behind Cy Young winner Paul Skenes, fellow 2025 breakout rookie Braxton Ashcraft, and top prospect Bubba Chandler. The Pirates would then have many choices on their hands for the fifth and final spot of the rotation.

Trading Mitch Keller would create massive change in the Pirates' rotation.

The obvious internal choice would be Hunter Barco. Barco made his MLB debut in September, but only appeared in two games and tossed a trio of innings. He threw 99.1 innings between Double-A Altoona and Triple-A Indianapolis, putting up a 2.81 ERA, a 3.54 FIP, and 1.20 WHIP. The southpaw struck out batters at a 27.8% rate, albeit with an 11.8% walk rate. Barco was immune to the gopher ball, as he had an 0.45 HR/9 ratio and a respectable 45.8% ground ball percentage.

However, he won’t be the only prospect who could be in the running for the final rotation spot. Antwone Kelly had a massive breakout season between High-A Greensboro and Altoona, with a 3.02 ERA and 19.5% K%-BB%. He was added to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. The Pirates also added fellow hard-throwing pitching prospect Wilber Dotel to the 40-man roster for similar reasons, who had a 4.15 ERA and 16.4% K%-BB% at Altoona this season.

One last internal option worth keeping in mind is Jared Jones. The right-hander proved to be a major league-caliber starter in 2024, when he had a 4.14 ERA, 26.2% K%, and 7.7% walk rate over 121.2 innings of work. While Jones was expected to play a big part in the team’s 2025 rotation, elbow injuries shelved him until mid-May, when he finally underwent internal brace surgery. That put him on a 10-12 month timeline, which would put him on track to be ready for Opening Day at the absolute earliest. Although it would be nice to have Jones back in the fold to start 2026, fans shouldn’t hold their breath on it.

The final option is one fans should oppose: Ben Cherington returning to the well and signing a low-cost left-handed starter. The likes of Patrick Corbin, as well as former Pirates Tyler Anderson and Jose Quintana, fit this mold. Steven Matz could be a candidate to move back into a starting role after performing well as a reliever, and Sean Newcomb had a nice rebound season as a swingman in 2025.

Trading Keller massively impacts the Pirates’ rotation going into 2026. It moves Burrows into a more important role, and it potentially opens the door for a top prospect to secure a spot in the Pirates’ Opening Day rotation. However, it also means the Pirates will have to find a way to get 30-32 starts and 170-180 innings from their mix of pitching depth. If the Pirates end up swapping Keller, the final two rotation spots would look a whole lot different than they do right now.