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Ranking the available free agent lefty relievers for Pirates after 2024 season
The Pirates should have these three lefty relievers on the top of their list this offseason.
The Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen was one of the biggest reasons why the team fell apart in the second half of the 2024 season. When the Pirates entered Spring Training, they were projected to have one of the best pens among all 30 teams. But Dauri Moreta underwent Tommy John surgery before the start of the season, and the Pirates lost Ryan Borucki for most of the year. David Bednar wasn’t his normal self, and Colin Holderman fell apart in August.
There were some bright spots, like Carmen Mlodzinski, Dennis Santana, and Kyle Nicolas, but ultimately, the bullpen was a huge letdown for the 2024 Pirates. Heading into this off-season, they need to revamp the reliever depth, especially with their left-handed pitchers. Unless the Pirates move Bailey Falter to the pen, then Joey Wentz is their only lefty reliever as of right now. So, based on who is on the free agent market, who would make the best possible fit?
Ranking the available free agent lefty relievers for Pirates after 2024 season
Tim Hill
Tim Hill feels like a pitcher from a completely different generation. The submarine southpaw isn’t like most relievers in today’s game, who are known for their high strikeout rates and overpowering stuff. Hill, instead, employs a low-90s sinker to induce weak contact at an insane rate while rarely striking batters out.
Last season, Hill pitched 67 innings for the Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees, working to the tune of a 3.36 ERA, 3.57 FIP, and 1.43 WHIP. He only walked 6.5% of opponents but had a K% of 10.7% and K/9 of 4.16. Hill is the first relief pitcher since Brandon Kintzler in 2017 to have a K/9 rate below 5.0 but have an ERA+ above 120 in at least 60 IP.
Hill induced ground balls at an insane 68.2% clip. Opponents had a -6.8-degree launch angle against Hill. That is the 24th-highest ground ball rate since batted ball data started being tracked (min. 60 IP). His 1.7% barrel rate is also the 17th best in the Statcast era (again, among pitchers with at least 60 IP in a season).
Hill did give up a decent amount of base hits, as indicated by his WHIP, despite his strong walk rate. But some of that can be chalked up to his time with the Chicago White Sox. Hill struggled with the White Sox this year (as did nearly their entire roster), with an ERA of nearly 6.00 at 5.87, accompanied by an outrageous .436 batting average on balls in play. After he was traded to the Yankees, he put up a 2.05 ERA with a .238 BABIP, which is what you’d expect from someone who never gets hit hard and induces ground balls at a near-historic rate.
Hill is an older pitcher, turning 35 in February. Hill’s salary was just $1.8 million last year. A one or two-year deal where Hill gets about $2-4 million a season seems reasonable for a decent lefty. He is coming off a very solid season with the New York Yankees, despite his first-half struggles with the White Sox, and would be the sort of southpaw the Pirates need.
A.J. Minter
A.J. Minter has been a stalwart in the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen for years. The veteran is coming off yet another solid season, albeit one that was cut short due to hip surgery. But he should undergo a normal off-season and be back well before the start of Spring Training 2025.
Minter’s 2.62 ERA in 2024 is the best of his career, aside from the shortened 2020 season. He struck out batters at a 26.2% rate with a walk rate of only 8.2%. Despite those strong peripherals, Minter had a 4.45 FIP, the highest watermark he has posted since 2019. That’s because Minter posted an uncharacteristically high 1.57 HR/9 rate.
His previous single-season high was only 0.92. Despite that worryingly high home run rate, Minter was not hit hard. Opponents only managed a pedestrian 87.3 MPH exit velocity and 6.9% barrel rate against him. His 45.9% ground ball rate is the second-highest he’s put up in one season. Where things went awry was his HR/FB ratio, which was 16.7%.
Given that Minter’s career HR/9 rate is only 0.70, his career HR/FB ratio is only 8%, and he didn’t give up very much hard contact to start with, it’s reasonable to assume he can return closer to normal next year.
Minter is 31 and will be for most of 2025. He’s one of the better left-handed relievers on the market, but he’d be worth the price. Minter has experience in high leverage, as he saved 36 games in his career with 114 holds.
Justin Wilson
Justin Wilson was once part of the Pirates’ bullpen, pitching 138 innings for the Bucs from 2012 through 2014 before he was traded to the Yankees for catcher Francisco Cervelli. Wilson has bounced around the league since, pitching for five different teams. Despite his advancing age, Wilson still has some promising numbers under the hood.
Wilson had a 5.59 ERA, 4.73 FIP, and 1.46 WHIP through 36.2 innings of work. While his surface numbers were not good, he did have some promising peripherals, including a 24.4% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate, and 88.6 MPH exit velocity. Wilson did struggle to limit home runs, with an HR/9 approaching 2.0 at 1.93.
But there is some hope that could return to a lower rate next season. His career HR/9 is 0.84, and it is only the second time ever he’s put up an HR/9 over 1.00 in 30+ IP. Wilson pitched for the Cincinnati Reds, whose Great American Ballpark is the most home-run-friendly park in baseball, according to Baseball Savant. His HR/9 on the road was only 1.09, but at home, it was 2.86.
His 15.9% HR/FB ratio is significantly higher than his career average of 10.1%. When he was a guest, his HR/FB ratio was 10%, which falls in line with his career norms. xFIP, which adjusts for abnormally high HR/FB ratios, put him at a much more manageable 3.99. SIERA was also much kinder to his performance, with a 3.41 mark.
While Wilson was in his age-36 campaign, he can still bring the stuff. He averaged 95.6 MPH with his fastball, which is right around his career average of 95.5 MPH. Stuff+ pinned him at 104 with an identical Location+ mark. With a less homer-friendly ballpark, Wilson could return to a much more effective state.
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