Recent trade should set high expectations for Pirates' Tommy Pham deal

The Pittsburgh Pirates are all but guaranteed to deal veteran outfielder Tommy Pham by the trade deadline. After a switch in eye prescription, Pham has rebuilt some of his value, as he entered Saturday batting .257/.329/.361 with a 90 wRC+ in 258 trips to the plate. For reference, prior to his new contacts, Pham had just a 41 wRC+. Pham’s defense has been fine in left field, with +7 defensive runs saved and zero outs above average. Expectations for the potential Pham return reset somewhat after a recent MLB move. Based on the Randal Grichuk deal, Pirates fans should be optimistic about what they could get for Pham in a swap.

The Arizona Diamondbacks dealt their own veteran outfielder, Grichuk, during Saturday’s game against the Pirates. Grichuck has been a better hitter than Pham this season, but only marginally so. In 189 plate appearances, he had .243/.280/.462 triple-slash and 99 wRC+. His defense was a step down from Pham’s, with -3 DRS and -3 outs above average. The Diamondbacks received right-handed pitcher Andrew Hoffmann from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for Grichuck.

Hoffmann has spent most of this season at the Kansas City Royals’ Triple-A affiliate, where he put up some solid numbers. In 40 innings, he owns a 2.25 ERA, 2.14 FIP, and 1.13 WHIP. Hoffmann has some strong peripherals to back up his performance. He has struck out a third of his opponents with a 36.1% whiff percentage. The right-hander has only allowed 6.1% to reach via free pass as well. Hoffmann has held opponents to an 0.45 HR/9 and 4.1% barrel percentage.

Hoffmann’s raw stuff is also good. He sits mid-90s with his four-seam fastball with above-average movement through the zone. He has seen an increase in velocity since moving to the bullpen full-time. His upper-80s changeup is an offering he uses more than his fastball, and it has induced a whiff rate of 39.4%. He’ll also occasionally mix in a mid-80s slider as his primary breaking pitch. According to Diamondbacks Prospects and TJ Stats, Hoffmann’s underlying numbers are mostly elite.

Arizona Diamondbacks set Pirates' fans expectations for Tommy Pham trade high

While Hoffmann isn’t a top-of-the-line pitching prospect, unranked by both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America this year, he has performed great since moving into a relief pitching role full-time, seeing an uptick in both performance and stuff on the mound. Plus, he can immediately take over a bullpen role for the Diamondbacks. He has already pitched 3.2 innings in the Major Leagues. This sort of return out of Pham should not be a massive ask.

This is an outstanding return for Grichuck and should make Pirates fans happy, as it should set some form of parameter for a Pham deal. Both Pham and Grichuk are veteran outfielders who have both provided about the same amount of value this year while being free agents at the end of the season. Getting this sort of return for Pham would be great for the Pirates, especially considering how he began the year.