Returning Pirates hurler deserves extension (despite crowded field) after adjustments

The Pittsburgh Pirates got back a key member of their rotation this year. With Johan Oviedo finally recovered from Tommy John surgery in December 2023 and a lat strain that sidelined him for the first half of the season, the right-hander is back in action and is off to a great start. He’s made some serious adjustments to his game, and now the Pirates should think about extending him while the iron is hot.

Oviedo has pitched 25.2 innings since his return to a big league mound. In that time, he has only allowed eight earned runs on just 16 hits, two of which were long balls. Getting strikeouts hasn’t been a problem, with a 26.9% K% and 31.9% whiff rate. His 13.3% walk rate isn’t good, but other than that, you couldn’t ask for a better return to the Major Leagues after missing nearly two years.

But there’s more to his performance than meets the eye. The right-hander has tweaked his mechanics, and it’s done wonders for him. Oviedo’s extension off the mound was already elite. In 2023, he was in the 93rd percentile at 7.1 feet, but since returning, he’s improved even more. This year, he is in the 98th percentile at 7.4 feet. The right-hander’s perceived fastball velocity is up to 97.2 MPH this season (compared to 95.2 MPH on the gun). He has also lowered his arm angle from 30 degrees to 26 degrees.

Johan Oviedo's performance and adjustments should earn him an extension with the Pirates

Oviedo’s improved arm mechanics aren’t the only thing that has gotten better this year. His four-seam fastball has better movement, going from 19.5 inches of vertical break to 15.5 inches, giving it better ride through the zone. While he has had to sacrifice some horizontal movement to achieve that, going from 9.8 inches to 5.5 inches, he has now induced a whiff rate of 27.5% with the pitch, compared to 18.5% in 2023. He is spinning his fastball more, with his RPM going from 2269 in ‘23 to 2334 this year, and his active spin rate (which is how much spin is actually contributing to movement) going from 77% to 80%.

The fastball isn’t the only thing that Oviedo has improved upon. Both his slider and curveball have gained a few inches of movement as well, with the former now having a 31.7% whiff rate, and the latter clocking in at an impressive 45.5%. While both pitches have lost a few ticks of velocity, the shift has resulted in some awe-inspiring numbers on both pitches. 

Those steps forward, even in a small sample, should earn Oviedo an extension with the Pirates. Oviedo is still only 27, and doesn’t turn 28 until early March. He only has two more years of control remaining through 2028. When healthy, Oviedo is a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm. Considering he is similar in age to Mitch Keller when he signed his extension at the start of 2024, a deal with similar length should be considered. But given that he has less experience staying healthy than Keller does, he would likely make less in total. A five-year, $60 million contract should be enough to get it done.

Oviedo has looked great since his return from injury this year. He has been nothing short of outstanding, and his mechanical adjustments make this feel like it’s not a fluke. The Pirates should capitalize on that. Signing a lower-cost contract extension now, before his value rises, could work out very well in the Pirates’ favor.