Caleb Ferguson has not only been a very significant piece in the Pirates bullpen, but ranked as one of the most impactful players in all of baseball over the first two weeks of the season. His early success in the 'Burgh placed him among the game's biggest names, as he made a huge positive impact for Pittsburgh.
Among all positions, Ferguson ranked 23rd in baseball in win probability added (WPA) at +.84 as of April 17. That was tied with Bryce Harper, a two-time MVP. This stat accounts for the positive impact that a player brings to the team in the situations they perform in. Therefore, a pitcher throwing a scoreless inning in a one-run game will account for a higher WPA than someone throwing a scoreless frame while up seven runs.
top 25 and bottom 25 players
— BrooksGate (@Brooks_Gate) April 17, 2025
by win probability added pic.twitter.com/8PnTyzihXZ
Caleb Ferguson has made a huge impact for the Pirates already, becoming an early top-25 producer in win probability added.
Through 11 appearances, Ferguson has posted an ERA of 1.64 with a FIP of 3.86. His WHIP is up to 1.18, stemming from an opposing batting average of .179 and a walk rate of 13%. He has not generated very many strikeouts (six in 11 innings), but he is still getting outs, which is the important thing.
One of the biggest factors to his WPA has been his productivity in high-leverage situations. He has thrown 2.1 scoreless innings, allowing just a hit and a walk in those moments. He has done well in the low and medium leverage situations, but the high-leverage are the most significant, giving him a high ranking in WPA.
Ferguson really has been a productive addition to the Pirates bullpen. There are some other numbers that stand out which indicate he could keep this hot start along all season long.
Although he has not generated many strikeouts, his chase rate is at a high 32.6%. Opponents' average exit velocity off him is at just 81.5 mph, ranking in the 99th percentile. Opposing hitters also have a hard-hit rate of 21.2%, which ranks in the 97th percentile.
The Pirates desperately needed the veteran southpaw to step up early in the bullpen after David Bednar and Colin Holderman both collapsed in high-leverage situations. Ferguson has been a pleasant surprise, making a huge impact on winning ball games for Pittsburgh.