Tarik Skubal arbitration ruling affects Paul Skenes inevitably, but not immediately

Without question, the two best pitchers in baseball right now are Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes. The reigning Cy Young Award winners in both leagues dominated in historic fashion in 2025 (as well as 2024), and both figure to be the frontrunners for the top pitching award in baseball once again in 2026.

This is why Skubal's (well-deserved) victory over the Detroit Tigers in arbitration is such an important ruling. He'll make a record-breaking $32 million in 2026 as an arbitration-eligible player and is now just a few short months away from striking it rich in free agency.

The Tigers never really stood a chance in the hearing after low-balling Skubal with an insulting $19 million offer, but it sets a calamitous precedent for the Pittsburgh Pirates nonetheless. Skenes' timeline in the Steel City is now officially on the clock.

However, that impending doom may not be quite as close as fans fear. He's still got one more year of pre-arb control before facing his first few go-rounds through the arbitration process.

Tarik Skubal's arbitration victory gives Pirates three-year deadline to win with Paul Skenes

While it's nice to pretend that Pirates will somehow find enough change between the couch cushions to give Skenes a record-setting extension between now and 2029, let's not kid ourselves. He's as good as gone once he reaches free agency, and thanks to Skubal's decisive arbitration win, Skenes may be gone even before then.

Using the Tigers' southpaw as our template, it's easy enough to see the Pirates having three more affordable years of Skenes before Defcon 1 is upon us. Skubal made less than $750,000 in his final pre-arb year before raking in salaries of $2.65 million and $10.15 million in arbitration years one and two, respectively.

Assuming Skenes earns something akin to those numbers in each of the following three seasons, it's easy enough to see how the Pirates can afford him and build a contender. They've made a legitimate attempt at doing so this offseason, signing Ryan O'Hearn, Marcell Ozuna, Gregory Soto, José Urquidy, and trading for a number of new faces as well.

The urgency of this deadline is abjectly terrifying for a team that hasn't made the postseason since 2015, but it's not like the Pirates have to turn the ship around by May or the trade deadline. They've got a little bit of time to figure out how to give Skenes a chance to shine in October.

Of course, the calculus on all of this could change if the looming MLB lockout actually happens. The institution of a salary cap, franchise tag, or max contracts (however unlikely they may be) could be the Pirates' ticket to keeping their ace around for a long time to come.

Failing that, though, fans should get ready for a very fun (and nerve-wracking) three-year stretch of Pirates baseball.