Tarik Skubal’s arbitration battle is a Pirates warning sign for Paul Skenes’ future

It's not often that you get a direct look into what the future holds. In those rare instances, it can be frightening, but also enlightening. If you play your cards right, you can learn exactly what pitfalls to avoid, without having to go through the experience yourself.

That's exactly where the Pittsburgh Pirates stand as they watch the arbitration drama unfold between Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers, knowing full well that if they mess up, they could end up in the exact same spot with Paul Skenes.

Skubal's case is unprecedented and could break the system as we know it. Skubal cites his status as a two-time Cy Young winner and a player with over five years of service time as the reasons why he should get $32 million. That number would shatter the previous record for a pitcher ($19.75 million given to David Price back in 2015).

Skenes already has the hardware necessary to make the argument, with both a NL Rookie of the Year title and a Cy Young award in his trophy case. By the time he gets to the point Skubal is in his career, he could have many more accolades to bolster his case.

The Tarik Skubal-Tigers arbitration drama presents a scary future for the Pirates and Paul Skenes

Arbitration salaries can escalate quickly. Skubal made just $2.65 million in his first year of arbitration. That ballooned to $10.15 million this past season, and now we're staring down him likely coming in anywhere between $19 million and $32 million.

Skenes already has a record-setting pre-arbitration bonus to bolster his case, meaning he could start out even higher than Skubal did once he enters the arbitration process next year. From there, things could quickly spiral out of control.

The Tigers are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They're trying to enjoy Skubal's last year of relative affordability, while still trying to figure out how to make the future work with him. If they pay him $32 million this season, you can throw the affordability factor out of the window. If they dig their heels in, they risk damaging the relationship beyond repair.

Detroit finds itself here because it wasn't proactive with Skubal earlier on. Teams can get greedy, trying to maximize the benefit that team control gives them over a player. The predicament they're in now shows how that can backfire once the player gets on nearly equal footing in the arbitration process.

This is why the Pirates need to come up with a way to extend Skenes now. In doing so, they might forgo some of the cost savings in his first two arbitration years, but they can also ensure that he is cost-efficient in the final year of arbitration to a degree, while also retaining him beyond, even if they eventually have to pay the unfathomable price he'll eventually command.

Essentially, if the Pirates extend Skenes, they'll be trading their financial benefits by holding control over Skenes for security, turning the process a bit on its head. That might be what's necessary in order to avoid having to trade Skenes before his arbitration years have come to an end.

The Pirates have an advantage here. They know what not to do by seeing where the Tigers' mistakes got them. Now they just need to do the opposite.