The best way the Pirates can utilize Bailey Falter in 2025

The Pittsburgh Pirates recently added Andrew Heaney, signing him to a one-year deal worth $5.25 million. Heaney adds yet another solid rotation arm to a depth chart that already has a handful of options. Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Jared Jones aren’t affected by the addition of Heaney, but Bailey Falter, another lefty starter, likely will be. So, what is the best course of action the Pirates can take with Falter now?

Last season, Falter pitched to a 4.43 ERA, 4.30 FIP, and 1.29 WHIP across 142.1 innings pitched. He only struck out 16.7% of batters he faced, but had both an above-average 1.07 HR/9 rate and a 7.6% walk rate. However, Falter was below average in limiting hard contact, with both a 90.1 MPH exit velocity and a 9% barrel rate. ERA estimators like xFIP (4.71) and SIERA (4.91) did not like Falter’s performance much. However, some of Falter’s numbers are inflated by one abnormally poor start; he allowed six earned runs in just four innings in his first start of the year. It was his shortest outing and his worst outing, based on how many ERs he allowed (not including games where he got injured midway through).

The Pirates have multiple options regarding Falter, including keeping him in the rotation, moving him to the bullpen, or even trading him. However, the best course of action could be a middle ground between a starter and a reliever role. One reason is that it would give the Pirates more flexibility with their pitching staff. Moving Falter to this role would give them a left-handed spot starter/long reliever option that they don't currently possess.

Another reason this would be the best move is that it would allow the Pirates to play matchups better. The Pirates are going to stretch out Carmen Mlodzinski and Caleb Ferguson in spring training. Johan Oviedo will be back in action, albeit in a limited role since he is coming off Tommy John surgery. Moving Falter into a similar role as Mlodzinski, Ferguson, or Oviedo would give the Pirates two right-handed and two left-handed multi-inning options.

What is the best role for Bailey Falter for the Pirates in 2025?

A third reason is that it could help Falter’s stuff play up. The lefty only averaged out around 92 MPH with his fastball, but his extension off the mound and ride through the zone with his four-seamer helps his relatively pedestrian velocity play up. Despite that trickery, Stuff+ was still pessimistic about his portfolio, pinning his overall stuff at a below-average 95. Pitching shorter outings could also help shield Falter from potentially large regression.

The biggest argument against moving Falter to the bullpen, aside from a roughly league average ERA/FIP/WHIP after his first start of the year, are his splits each time he faces an opponent. Oddly enough, Falter improved as he worked through the lineup, with his opponent OPS dropping from .789 to .750 to .547 each time through the order.

However, there are multiple positives and less risk if the Pirates move Falter into a starter/reliever swingman role. There are also better opportunities to play matchups and more flexibility for the pitching staff, and Falter’s stuff should play up in shorter outings. As long as he can figure out why he tends to improve over time and harness it, there should be no issues with diversifying Pittsburgh's swingman setup by moving Falter.