The Pirates should give newest 40-man roster addition a Jared Jones-esque opportunity

When the Pittsburgh Pirates broke camp in 2024, they added top prospect Jared Jones to their Opening Day roster. It was a scarce sight for a team that usually dabbles in service time manipulation for their top rookies. The Pirates will likely leave camp in 2026 with at least one rookie, Bubba Chandler, in the rotation. They should also give 40-man newbie Antowne Kelly a chance to lock down a rotation spot, similarly to Jones.

After a handful of middling years in the low levels of the minor leagues, Kelly had a massive breakout in 2025. He pitched a total of 107.1 innings between High-A Greensboro and Double-A Altoona, working to the tune of a 3.02 ERA, 2.89 FIP, and 1.06 WHIP. He struck out 27.2% of batters faced while only allowing a walk 7.7% of the time. While the right-hander's 35.3% ground ball rate was uninspiring, he did not allow many home runs overall, with an 0.50 HR/9 ratio. Kelly saw an uptick in Stuff+, ranking among the top 150 pitchers in the metric at 108, as well as Baseball America's nStuff+ at 117. That performance and uptick in overall stuff earned him a 40-man roster spot to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, and he now ranks among the Pirates' top ten prospects.

While comparing Jones to Kelly isn't a one-to-one comparison, there are similarities between the two. 2024 was Jones' age-22 season, while 2026 will be Kelly's age-22 season. Both throw mid-to-upper-90s four-seam fastballs that Baseball America gave a 70 grade. Their primary breaking pitches are upper-80s sliders. Baseball America also once projected Jones to be the Pirates' next closer, just like they recently named Kelly as the Pirates' closer by the year 2029. 

There are definitely notable differences as well. Kelly is a three-pitch pitcher with a fastball, slider, and changeup. Meanwhile, Jones has a fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. Jones' slider was considered a 60-grade offering as a prospect. Kelly's four-seam fastball is the only pitch in his arsenal that projects as plus or better, at the moment. His changeup is his second-best offering, as BA gives it an above-average 55 grade. However, Jones lacked good control as a prospect, with a projected control grade of 45. Kelly receives a 55 grade for the same tool. Jones also reached Triple-A in 2023, where he pitched over 80 innings. In comparison, Kelly made it to Double-A in 2025 and tossed only 48 frames at the level.

Antwone Kelly has earned a chance at starting the 2026 season in the Pittsburgh Pirates' rotation.

Another thing that distinguishes Kelly's and Jones' situations is the team's projected depth chart entering camp. At the start of the 2024 season, the Pirates' starting rotation consisted of Mitch Keller, Marco Gonzales, Martín Perez, and Bailey Falter, as Jones threatened to crack the list. That is far weaker than what the Pirates currently have. The current depth chart includes Keller, Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft, and a myriad of options for the fifth rotation spot, including Kelly and potentially Jones (depending on his health).

The question then becomes, what does Kelly's competition for the final rotation spot look like? As things currently stand, he'll have to compete with 2025 standout rookie Mike Burrows, fellow top prospect Hunter Barco, former top prospect Thomas Harrington, and another recent 40-man roster addition, Wilber Dotel. Jones may potentially be ready to go in spring training, but he is far from a guarantee. Thankfully, he should be good to go at some point during the first half, given he didn't have Tommy John surgery, instead undergoing internal brace surgery, similar to the situation Atlanta Braves ace Spencer Strider just returned from.

Among those players, Kelly does have the best fastball and the most heat on his four-seamer. He also has above-average control over his mid-to-upper-90s pitch. That gives him a high ceiling, especially if he can sharpen up his secondary offerings. Given that's exactly what he did with his fastball in 2025, it's definitely not out of the question that he can continue to progress there. He lacks a deeper arsenal compared to what his fifth starter competitors offer, which leaves his long-term outlook as a starting pitcher up in the air.

Just like Jones, this could come down to spring training performance. Jones was outright dominant in 2024, as he only allowed three earned runs with 17 Ks over 12 innings. Regardless, the Pirates should give Kelly the opportunity to earn that starting pitching role. His breakout definitely earned him at least a chance, even if it's an outside shot that he has to work for. That is especially true if he looks anything like Jones did a few years ago.