The Pittsburgh Pirates can’t let Colin Holderman become Clay Holmes 2.0

Pittsburgh Pirates’ reliever Colin Holderman once looked like a budding reliever. Up until the 2024 All-Star break, Holderman was the Pirates’ go-to setup man. But it’s been all downhill since then. His ERA is approaching 8.00, and he is averaging nearly two home runs allowed every nine innings of work.

But Holderman invokes similar vibes to a former Pirates reliever who went on to become an All-Star with the New York Yankees: Clay Holmes.

Holmes was once one of the Pirates’ prized 2011 draft picks, and his $1.2 million signing bonus still stands as a record for a ninth-round pick. He appeared in parts of four seasons with the Bucs from 2018-2021, but wasn't good, putting up a 5.57 ERA, 4.72 FIP, and 1.64 WHIP. While his 21.6% strikeout rate was playable, and he induced ground balls at an insane 63.8% rate, he struggled mightily with walks (14.9% rate).

That was when the Pirates dealt Holmes at the 2021 trade deadline to the Yankees for two players that did not pan out. He went on to become a two-time All-Star closer, logging a 2.69 ERA, 2.74 FIP, and 1.12 WHIP. He upped his strikeout rate to 26.6% while maintaining his outstanding ground ball rate at 67.8%. But the biggest reason for his breakout was his walk rate. He nearly halved it, dropping his free pass percentage to just 7.7%.

So what makes Holderman and Holmes similar? Both are sinker-heavy right-handed relief pitchers. They also have remarkably similar frames, as Holmes is 6’5”, 245 pounds, while Holderman is 6’6”, 230 pounds. Both Holmes and Holderman never had any questions about their stuff. Even with Holderman’s struggles since last year’s All-Star break, his 115 Stuff+ is outstanding. Holmes had a 111 mark with the Pirates. But they had huge issues with their command. Holmes had a 91 Location+, while Holderman sits at 85 since the start of his troubles.

The Pirates can't let Colin Holderman spiral into Clay Holmes 2.0

The question is: what the Pirates can learn from how the Yankees helped Holmes break out? The Yankees had Holmes put a heavy focus on his sinker. In his first full year in pinstripes during 2022, Holmes used the pitch just over 80% of the time. Although his use of the pitch steadily declined in 2023 and 2024, it was still his most used offering by a mile. They also prioritized his sinker’s velocity, as he added another tick to the pitch, while sacrificing a few inches of vertical break. 

Holmes used a handful of different pitches with the Pirates. Along with his sinker, he mixed in a slider, curveball, four-seam fastball, and changeup. After getting traded to the Yankees, Holmes only utilized his sinker, slider, and a newly-minted sweeper. He never threw a changeup or a curveball. The right-hander only threw five four-seam fastballs, which, in that large a sample size, could have been miscategorized as sinkers by Statcast. Limiting his arsenal worked.

Holderman uses a sinker, along with a sweeper, cutter, and four-seam fastball. He has also begun to mix in a splitter, which he has only used against left-handed hitters. Holderman’s cutter has been his worst pitch, even in 2023 when he was a solid setup option. 

Holderman’s stuff is too good for him not to harness it. If the Pirates let go of Holderman via release or DFA, or trade him this offseason for very little, there is a good chance he becomes their next Holmes. Beyond just right-handed sinker-focused relievers, the two have many similarities that should give fans a reason to hope Holderman can figure it out while still in a Pirates uniform.