The Pittsburgh Pirates have no excuse not to find a good first baseman on the trade market

The Pittsburgh Pirates need a good first baseman. Rowdy Tellez provided a few good months in 2024 but also a few horrific months. So did Connor Joe. The Pirates have tinkered with the idea of moving Bryan Reynolds to first base, but with how the trade market looks to be shaping up, they have no excuse not to find a decent option at first.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, four of the top 35 trade candidates this offseason are first basemen still in arbitration. The best they listed was Yandy Diaz. Diaz had a career year in 2023, but his production took a step back in 2024. He still put up good numbers, however, including a .281/.341/.414 slash .331 wOBA, and 120 wRC+ in 621 plate appearances. Although Diaz only had a .133 isolated slugging percentage, he can hit the ball very hard and had a 92.2 MPH exit velocity. He has consistently struggled to lift the ball, however, but he still manages to put up quality numbers every season.

Diaz’s defense at first base is not generally considered great and he had -5 defensive runs saved and -3 outs above average. Granted, he previously graded out in a more positive light in previous season. From 2021 through 2023, he had zero DRS, and -2 OAA across 1723 innings at the position. Diaz has control through 2025 with a club option worth $12 million for 2026.

Next, they have Josh Naylor as another 1B who could get traded this offseason. Naylor hit .243/.320/.456 with a career-best 31 home runs and .213 ISO. The slugger has never struck out often and only had a 16.6% K% this year. But he walked at a career best 9.2% rate. This amounted to a quality .332 wOBA and 118 wRC+.

Defensive metrics were mixed on Naylor’s performance. Defensive runs saved had him at -6, the worst of his career. He’s never graded out better than average in terms of DRS. But outs above average consistently show him as a solid defender and pinned him at +1 OAA in 2024. UZR/150 also has him as an average defensive first baseman throughout his career at +0.3. Naylor is only controlled through the 2025 season, making him a one-year rental. MLB Trade Rumors estimates that Naylor will receive about $12 million this offseason through arbitration.

Nathaniel Lowe was listed as the third-best 1B on the trade market. He is coming off his fourth straight well-above-average season with the bat. Lowe turned in a .265/.361/.405 triple-slash with a .337 wOBA, and 121 wRC+. Lowe went yard 16 times with a career-low 22.1% strikeout rate. Lowe has consistently walked at a high rate and had a 12.6% BB%.

Lowe is also a Gold Glove finalist, and deservingly so. He had +1 DRS and +7 OAA. Carlos Santana and Christian Walker were the only first basemen to provide better defense in the eyes of OAA across Major League Baseball. Lowe is controlled through 2026 via arbitration and is expected to receive about $10.7 million this offseason.

Then there’s Baltimore Orioles’ 1B Ryan Mountcastle. Mountcastle is coming off a season where he hit .271/.308/.425 with a .316 wOBA and 108 wRC+. He walked at a career-low 5.3% rate but still had a solid .154 isolated slugging percentage and a 22.5% strikeout rate. Mountcastle could definitely benefit from a move out of Camden Yards and was above the 70th percentile in each of Baseball Savant’s expected stats. 

Like Lowe, Mountcastle is also an American League 1B Gold Glove finalist. He had +8 DRS and +2 OAA. Mountcastle also is under control for the 2025 and 2026 seasons through arbitration before becoming a free agent in the 2026-2027 off-season. Mountcastle has the lowest projected arbitration figure at $6.6 million. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates have no excuse not to find a good first baseman on the trade market

MLBTR did not list him as a first baseman, but Luis Arraez was also named a top trade candidate, and he played more first base than any other position this year. Arraez is coming off a down season for his standards, as he hit .314/.346/.392 with a 106 wRC+ through 672 plate appearances. He struck out less than 5% of the time but only walked in 3.6% of his plate appearances. But between 2022 and 2023, he hit .335/.384/.445 with a 130 wRC+ and walked at a 7% rate.

But Arraez’s defense is the worst of any name listed here. This year, he had -3 DRS and -6 OAA. He ranked 123/129 among first basemen in OAA. Arraez is heading into his final season of control. He is estimated to make $14.6 million through arbitration before he becomes a free agent after 2025.

The first base market is going to be a buyer’s market and play in the Pirates’ favor. This is going to be the best opportunity the Pirates have had in years to find a decent first baseman, and they need to take advantage of it.

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