This mock Pirates trade could vault NL contender back into Wild Card race

The Pittsburgh Pirates are all but confirmed to be sellers at the trade deadline. They have plenty of pitching depth, both in the minor leagues and in the majors, so a deal involving a hurler seems inevitable. Right now, one team that very much needs help on the pitching front is the Arizona Diamondbacks. They are only 2.5 games out of the Wild Card and eight out of the NL West, but their bullpen is on thin ice.

Shelby Miller is having a surprising season and has taken over their closer role. Former Pirates left-hander Jalen Beeks is having a solid campaign, but that’s about all that stands in the way of late innings for the D-Backs. They are a team in need of more pitching, and the Pirates are a team in need of more offense.

Seems like a trade match made in heaven, at least on paper, and this trade would solve both team’s issues.

Pirates' mock Dennis Santana trade with Diamondbacks could solve major issues

Dennis Santana is the big name in this deal. The right-hander has followed up his breakout 2024 campaign with yet another quality season so far. He has a 1.72 ERA, 2.37 FIP, and 0.83 WHIP in 31.1 innings this season. While his 21.1% K% is a step down from last season and hovers just under the league average, Santana has been allergic to allowing walks and home runs. His 4.2% walk rate is the 11th-best, and his 0.29 HR/9 ratio is the 19th-best among qualified major league relievers this season. Santana has also proven himself in higher leverage this season, as he’s already recorded five saves, nine holds, and has a 1.53 leverage index. Santana has control remaining through 2026; he's currently serving out a suspension for an incident in Detroit to open the weekend.

The Pirates would also be sending southpaw Caleb Ferguson to Arizona in this mock trade. Ferguson was signed to a one-year contract this past offseason and has had a good season out of the Bucs’ bullpen. He owns a 3.13 ERA, 3.07 FIP, and 1.11 WHIP. His 18.6% K% is a career-low by far. He has never struck out fewer than a quarter of opponents in one year. The left-hander’s 9.3% walk rate is also worse than average, but he’s yet to allow a home run. He has been elite at limiting hard contact, as evidenced by his 100th percentile exit velocity (83.3 MPH) and 95th percentile barrel rate (3.4%).

In return for these two pitchers, the Pirates would be receiving the D-Backs’ 2023 second-round pick, LuJames Groover. Groover has had a strong season at Double-A, batting .300/.368/.476 with a .385 wOBA and 123 wRC+ across 253 plate appearances. He’s hitting for a decent amount of power with a .176 isolated slugging percentage. Groover has only struck out 19.3% of the time, albeit with an 8.3% walk rate. The only red flag in his profile is that his walk and strikeout rates are a step back from 2024, when he had an 11.4% BB% and 13.6% K%.

However, he is still one of the best hitters in the Texas League this season. Groover ranks in the top five in batting average and slugging percentage. He also ranks eighth in OPS, ninth in wOBA, 11th in ISO, and 17th in wRC+. He is also already 23, so at this point, he’s almost certainly going to get a bump to Triple-A by the end of the season.

While Groover’s bat has been coming along nicely, his long-term defensive home is up in the air. He’s logged innings at both infield corners, as well as second base, though most of his time in the field has been spent at the hot corner. On top of that, he played a handful of games in left field throughout college. Even with his lack of defense, Groover still ranks as the D-Backs’ tenth-best prospect by MLB Pipeline and fifth-best by Baseball America.

If you think that’s an overpay, look at what good relievers go for at the trade deadline. Last year, the likes of Jason Adam, Tanner Scott, Gregory Soto, Carlos Estevez, and Hunter Harvey netted their former teams some very good prospects. In cases like Scott and Estevez, they were only rentals, and the prospects they received are now among the top three prospects of their former organizations (in this case, the Miami Marlins with Robby Snelling and the LA Angels with George Klassen).

Not only are the Pirates including one good reliever who is under control for another season in this proposed deal, but they’re also including a rental who has been solid this season (and who's a lefty on top of that). This is also comparable to a similar trade the D-Backs themselves made last season when they sent bat-first prospect Deyvison De Los Santos and another minor leaguer to the Miami Marlins for left-hander A.J. Puk.

The Pirates can go on without Santana. They still have David Bednar, who can close out games. Braxton Ashcraft or Carmen Mlodzinski can start seeing higher-leverage innings, andDauri Moreta is another candidate who could fill Santana’s role. Even if he doesn’t pitch this season, Justin Lawrence is a high-leverage option for next season. The Bucs have plenty of solid middle relief options as well, like Hunter Stratton, Chase Shugart, and potentially now Isaac Mattson.

Meanwhile, two good relievers can be all the difference for a team less than three games out of a playoff spot and less than 10 out of a division, especially considering how poor the D-Backs bullpen has been for most of this season.