This Pirates mock trade would follow familiar pattern to land a powerful outfielder

Last season, the Pittsburgh Pirates made a prospect-for-prospect trade with the Baltimore Orioles. They sent pitching prospect Patrick Reilly to the Orioles for outfielder/first baseman Billy Cook. The O’s needed more pitching talent in their system, and the Pirates needed a near-MLB-ready outfielder. These two teams still have similar needs this year, and this mock trade would be the sort of swap that both teams may be interested in.

In this one-for-one deal, the Pirates would be sending underrated right-hander Khristian Curtis to the Orioles. Curtis was the Pirates’ 12th-round pick in 2023, and had a solid 2024 season at Bradenton. He was promoted to Greensboro to open 2025 and didn’t get off to a strong start, allowing 17 earned runs with 11 walks and 23 hits in 13.1 innings of work throughout April, but he’s seemed to have found a groove since the start of May.

His last six starts have yielded a 2.96 ERA, accompanied by a 28.3% strikeout percentage and a 1.27 WHIP. Still, Curtis has allowed his fair share of walks, with a 12.3% BB%, and has a 1.48 HR/9 ratio.

Curtis has four pitches that grade out as average or better. His four-seam fastball sits in the mid-90s as a starter. His low-90s cutter and mid-80s changeup are also considered above-average by Baseball America. Curtis’ slider gives him a fourth pitch with average potential. Lastly, there’s his curveball, which doesn't grade out as highly.

Pirates should send pitcher to Orioles for slugging outfielder in mock trade

The Pirates would be getting back outfielder Jud Fabian. Fabian was a second-round pick by the Orioles in 2023 and is hitting well at Triple-A. He is slashing .227/.327/.483 with a 115 wRC+ through 200 plate appearances. He already has a dozen home runs, and his .256 isolated slugging percentage is the sixth-best among all qualified International League batters.

Let’s start off with the good. Fabian has high-end power potential. He makes plenty of loud contact, with a 90.7 MPH exit velocity and 13.4% barrel percentage. Fabian’s walk rate also sits at a strong 13% mark. He’s a plus runner and a plus defensive outfielder with a strong arm, one that will play very well at all three outfield positions. He has the ceiling of a 20/20 center fielder with good defense.

But there definitely is bad to Fabian’s game, as he has one massive red flag. His hit tool is seriously lacking to a point where it will likely affect his power output. He has a 28% strikeout percentage and a whiff rate of 35.9%. The latter is currently the 15th-highest among all Triple-A batters with at least 150 plate appearances this season. MLB Pipeline grades his hit tool out as a 35, while Baseball America has him at a 30. 

Fabian could immediately take over in left field this season for the Pirates. Plus, the O’s have plenty of young outfielders, as MLB Pipeline puts four outfield prospects in their top 15. They signed Tyler O’Neill last offseason, and have youngsters Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser in the Major Leagues. Fabian may carry some significant risk, but so does Curtis. Both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America project his control at just a 40-grade. That could eventually push him to the bullpen. 

It’s a very similar trade to the one the Pirates and Orioles made last year. Billy Cook is a speedy outfielder with good defense and some pop, but lacks the hit tool that would make him a better prospect. Patrick Reilly was also a hard-throwing right-hander at High-A who has control issues and likely projects better as a bullpen arm rather than a starting pitcher. These two teams still have similar needs as last summer. The Pirates need more young outfielders with offensive upside. The O’s need more arms with potential.