This salary dump trade would improve Pirates’ bullpen and help spiraling Padres

The San Diego Padres might shed payroll before the end of the offseason, as a worrisome ownership battle rages. Three-time batting champion Luis Arraez has long been rumored to get traded, and even Dylan Cease’s name has come up in trade rumors this offseason. He just finished fourth in Cy Young voting, two years after finishing second in the American League while with the Chicago White Sox.

The Padres could alternatively look to move some less impactful players so they can keep some of their bigger names, like Arraez and especially Cease. They’ve also ‘entertained’ trading All-Star closer Robert Suarez, but Suarez isn’t the only reliever they could look to shed.

This unexpected opportunity is something the Pittsburgh Pirates should take advantage of. They could definitely use a bullpen arm and, by taking on a contract, could get one on the cheap, prospect-wise. This mock trade that would solve issues for both the Bucs and the Friars.

This Padres-Pirates trade would help both parties

Pirates acquire: Yuki Matsui
Padres acquire: Jason Delay and Sammy Siani

If the Padres are willing to listen to offers regarding Suarez, they may also be willing to see if teams would be interested in left-hander Yuki Matsui. After years of being a shutdown closer in NPB, Matsui signed a five-year deal worth $28 million last offseason. In his rookie campaign in MLB, the southpaw registered a 3.73 ERA, 3.92 FIP, and 1.16 WHIP throughout 62.2 innings of work.

Matsui had some solid peripherals, too. He struck out 26.8% of his opponents. He was above average at limiting hard contact with an 88.5 MPH exit velocity (58th percentile) and 6.8% barrel rate (68th percentile). Both could help him lower his roughly league-average 1.15 HR/9 rate. However, he did dish out a free pass to 10.5% of opponents he faced. On the plus side, Matsui did not significantly overperform, as he had a 3.63 SIERA and 4.02 xFIP, aligned nicely with his actual production. He was also in the 90th percentile of xERA at 2.94 and xBA at .203.

Matsui has decent stuff, despite pedestrian fastball velocity, sitting at 92.2 MPH in 2024. His slider and splitter both induced a whiff rate of over 40%. His sweeper also had an outstanding 36.8% whiff rate. His four-seam fastball was the only pitch that didn’t hold opponents to a xwOBA below .300, clocking in at .327. Still, Matsui ended his rookie year with a 110 mark in terms of Stuff+.

This mock trade would have the Pirates taking on the rest of Matsui’s contract, which amounts to four years worth $24.75 million. Next season, he will get paid just $5.5 million. His salary steadily increases until it reaches $7 million during the final year of the contract.

If this does go down, the Padres would still have multiple other lefties besides Matsui. One is former top prospect and 2024 breakout stud Adrian Morejon. Another is veteran Wandy Peralta, who they signed last offseason, while Tom Cosgrove likely brings up the rear on the depth chart. While Cosgrove struggled in his sophomore season, he missed time due to injuries, has decent stuff, and was very reliable throughout his rookie campaign in 2023.

Although this trade might not make as big of a dent in San Diego's payroll as trading any of Cease, Arraez, or Suarez, it would be a step in the direction the Padres want to go. Plus, the Pirates can offer depth at positions where the Padres need help. Catcher is arguably the biggest hole on the Padres’ roster. Now that Kyle Higashokia has signed with the Texas Rangers, they’re down to just Luis Campusano, Brett Sullivan and Martin Maldonado. The Pirates would be sending Jason Delay to the Padres in this deal in order to help fill that void.

Delay hasn’t hit much throughout his Major League career. 2023 represented the most MLB playing time he has earned so far, with 187 plate appearances in 70 games. In that time, he hit just .251/.319/.337 with a .296 wOBA and 81 wRC+. His 7.5% walk rate and 23.5% strikeout rate were playable, but he hit just a single home run and posted a sub-.100 isolated slugging percentage. He appeared in just seven MLB games last year. Delay spent a good portion of the year on the IL and at Triple-A, where he batted .287/.357/.360 with a 93 wRC+ in 150 plate appearances.

But Delay is a genuine defensive specialist. Throughout his career, he has racked up +4 defensive runs saved with +11.8 framing runs in just 966.2 innings caught. Delay put up a slightly better-than-league-average pop time in 2023 at 1.99 seconds, but only averaged 78.6 MPH on his throws. More impressively, he has yet to allow a passed ball throughout his Major League career.

So why would the Padres have any interest in Delay? Padres catchers were a mess defensively in 2024, and things look even worse with Higashioka out the door. They had -17 defensive runs saved, the fewest in baseball, and -5.3 framing runs, which was bottom 10 in the league. On top of that, they led the league in passed balls with 16, and had the third most wild pitches with 63. Higashokia graded out as an above-average defender, but with nine passed balls. Campusano had a remarkable -17 DRS in less than 700 innings and allowed six passed balls.

Even if the Pirates trade Delay, they still have a decent amount of catching depth. Joey Bart looks to continue his promising 2024 season, and Endy Rodriguez will return from Tommy John surgery. Former first overall pick Henry Davis is still on hand. The Pirates have even shown some interest in Yasmani Grandal, who served as 2024 NL Rookie of the Year winner and Cy Young finalist Paul Skenes’ personal catcher.

The second player heading to the Padres in this mock deal is Sammy Siani. Siani toiled at High-A from 2021 through 2023, never seemingly able to string anything together.

Then came last year, of course, when he opened up the campaign batting .324/.402/.563 with a .433 wOBA and 170 wRC+ in his first 82 plate appearances of the season. Siani only struck out nine times and drew 10 walks. He also went yard four times.

That scorching hot start earned him a bump to Double-A. His numbers took a hit, however, as he batted .265/.325/.368 with a .320 wOBA and 101 wRC+. Siani only struck out 20.6% of the time with an 8.9% walk rate, but his power didn't manifest, with just five home runs in 394 plate appearances. He at least went on a hot streak at the end of the year with a .766 OPS, .355 wOBA, and 124 wRC+ throughout his last 149 plate appearances of the campaign.

Siani is considered a solid defensive outfielder with decent speed. He has stolen at least 16 bags in each of the previous three seasons. In Baseball America’s write-up of Siani after his strong performance in the Arizona Fall League (in which he had an OPS over 1.000), they noted that while he’s likely not going to be a star, he could be a decent part-time, fourth-outfielder type who can provide some value on both sides of the ball.

While the Padres have Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill, the rest of their outfield depth chart is arguably shallower than the Pirates’ outfield depth chart past Bryan Reynolds/Oneil Cruz. FanGraphs currently pencils Tirso Ornelas as their left fielder, with Mike Brosseau, Tyler Wade, and Brandon Lockridge as outfield options on the bench. Oscar González is considered their best outfielder on their Triple-A depth chart, and they have no outfield-capable prospects in their top 10 on Baseball America. MLB Pipeline is nearly as bleak, with only two outfield prospects in their top 30: Ornelas and 2024 fourth-round draft pick Kavares Tears. Siani would at least give them a decent defensive outfield option.

Part of the reasoning behind this trade is also based on the recent Reds/Yankees swap of Jose Trevino for Fernando Cruz (along with Alex Jackson). It was a trade of a backup catcher for a high-ceiling reliever with control remaining. This would be a similar trade, just on a larger scale, given Matsui’s contract. The Yankees-Reds trade could set up the framework for a Delay deal, and the Padres work nicely as a proposed partner.

On paper, this makes sense for both sides. The Padres are looking to shed some payroll, have a handful of lefty relievers, and need both some catching and outfield depth. Matsui’s contract isn’t huge, but shopping it elsewhere would lower their payroll and give the Pirates a solid lefty, something they could very much use. They certainly have catching depth to trade, and including Siani does not kill the Pirates’ outfield depth, either. This deal is definitely worth watching.