This underrated reliever just became a key piece of the Pirates' 2026 bullpen

One of the moves the Pittsburgh Pirates made before the start of the 2025 season was acquiring right-hander Justin Lawrence from the Colorado Rockies. Lawrence was put on waivers by the Rockies at the beginning of March and was picked up by the Pirates just days later. Given his promising outlook and the sort of moves the Pirates made at the deadline, he looks like he could be in line to play a key role in their bullpen next season.

Lawrence’s first 194 innings of his career were all spent with the Rockies. He put up a meager 5.43 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and 1.61 WHIP. He had a 21.3% strikeout percentage while walking 12.5% of opponents. Surprisingly, he was not home run-prone, despite being a Rockies pitcher. He had just a 0.79 HR/9. Lawrence induced ground balls at a hefty 50.9% rate and had a barrel percentage of 5.8%.

Lawrence has pitched 11.1 innings for the Pirates thus far, but it has been a very promising small sample size. He only allowed one earned run with 15 strikeouts. The right-hander allowed just five base hits, while inducing ground balls at an even better 54.4% rate. When batters swung, they had a whiff rate of 37.3% against Lawrence. The only downside is that he allowed six opponents to reach base. The most promising aspect of his game with the Pirates is his raw stuff.

Lawrence put up a career-high 105 Stuff+ mark on 172 total pitches thrown, by FanGraphs’ Stuff+ model. According to fellow Rum Bunter writer Ethan Fisher, Lawrence had thrown the most 95+ MPH pitches from a negative degree arm slot in the Statcast Era (since 2015), and it isn’t even close. He threw 774 heading into the 2025 season. No other pitcher even had five of the same sort of low arm slot/high-velocity pitches thrown.

Justin Lawrence has the chance to become the Pirates' next go-to high-leverage arm.

On the surface, one might see Lawrence’s stats and wonder why anyone would bet on an 11.1 inning sample size. But there is a very good reason, and that is because he is out of Coors Field. It’s not as simple as home and away splits, and the fly balls flying further in Coors. It’s about getting a good feel for his pitch mix, which Coors Field doesn’t allow a pitcher to get. Lawrence employs a sinker and sweeper. When in Coors Field, Lawrence’s sinker averaged out with 29.7 inches of vertical movement and 13.5 inches of arm side break. When on the road, the same pitch had 30.4 inches of drop and 17.5 inches of arm side movement. Lawrence’s sweeper did something similar. In Coors, his breaking pitch had 36.6 inches of drop and 13.5 inches of glove-side break. But on the road? He had 35 inches of vertical drop plus 15.3 inches of break. 

That should not be a problem for Lawrence in Pittsburgh. He won’t have to pitch in an environment where the air density is 20% thinner than at sea level, drastically altering his pitch movement. He won’t have to worry about having to change how he locates stuff or how he throws it because he likely won’t be gaining or losing upwards of four inches of movement simply because he is pitching at home or away. Getting a better feel for his stuff will go a long way, given how good it is. 

The Pirates moved star closer David Bednar at the trade deadline, which could open up the door for Lawrence to take over a high-leverage role next season. He is not unfamiliar serving as a higher-leverage reliever. He saved 11 games for the Colorado Rockies in 2023, and his 1.30 leverage index was the third-highest of any Rockies pitcher with at least 60 innings pitched between 2021 and 2024.

Lawrence has been on the shelf with elbow inflammation since late April. On the positive side, he is making progress toward returning to the mound. Getting Lawrence back before the end of the season would be huge for the Pirates’ bullpen heading into the 2026 season. With uncertainty about how the Pirates will utilize the set-up and closing spots moving forward, Lawrence has the opportunity to be a key member of their high-leverage corps.