Unlikely name has emerged as Pittsburgh Pirates' next shutdown reliever

The Pittsburgh Pirates have always been able to find some pretty good bullpen arms. Mark Melancon was one of the best relievers of the 2010s; Tony Watson set the all-time holds record; and their bullpen was considered one of the best last decade.

Now in 2025, David Bednar has been a multi-time All-Star and is having a nice rebound campaign. But the next great Pirates reliever could be right-hander Braxton Ashcraft.

The right-hander was originally a second-round pick by the Pirates in 2018. Although he got his feet wet in rookie ball and Low-A, it wouldn’t be until 2023 that Ashcraft would truly break out. From 2020 through 2022, he only pitched 38 2/3 innings, suffering multiple injuries and not pitching in 2020 because of COVID. Ashcraft strung together two promising seasons between 2023 and 2024, pitching to a 2.65 ERA, 2.89 FIP, and 1.07 WHIP. He struck out 27.3% of opponents with a microscopic 4.5% walk rate. 

Ashcraft’s numbers were great. He was one of the best minor league pitchers, as he ranked in the top five in FIP and walk rate and top 10 in ERA, K%-BB%, and WHIP among arms who started at least 30 games between the two seasons. However, Ashcraft was only limited to 125 2/3 innings in 33 starts due to his absence for nearly three straight seasons. Only five of his outings lasted at least six innings, and he didn’t reach five innings once during 2023.

Heading into 2025, Ashcraft was considered a top-10 prospect in the Pirates’ system. Although he had some rough outings at Triple-A, he still had solid peripherals in a 48 1/3-inning sample size. Ashcraft was then called to the Major Leagues and made his debut on May 26. Since then, Ashcraft has pitched 9 2/3 innings, allowing only one earned run, with eight Ks and five free passes.

The Pirates perhaps realized Ashcraft's days as a starter are behind him. Ashcraft’s fastball is sitting at 97 MPH, which is much harder than when he worked as a starter at Indianapolis, where he averaged 95.6 MPH. His slider is clocking in at 91.6 MPH. Ashcraft also utilizes a curveball that is sitting at 83.8 MPH. His mid-90s sinker has only been used against right-handed batters, while his changeup has been his go-to third weapon against left-handed opponents.

Overall, Ashcraft’s stuff comes in at a well above-average 107 in terms of Stuff+. But he is also executing his pitches well and has a 101 Location+. For reference, of the 182 qualified relief pitchers in baseball, only 44 have a Stuff+ rating of 105 or greater and a Location+ that comes in at 100 or better. 

Ashcraft’s stuff is what you’d typically see from a high-leverage reliever. His fastball is in the 87th percentile of velocity, with movement similar to that of pitchers like Lucas Giolito, Jameson Taillon, or Tanner Scott. Ashcraft throws the hardest slider in the big leagues right now. His curveball has very similar movement to David Bednar’s, but while Bednar averages 77-78 MPH, Ashcraft averages nearly 84 MPH, and Bednar has held opponents to a .107 xwOBA, with a 34.9% whiff rate and 79.3 MPH exit velocity.

The Pirates should continue to use Ashcraft out of the bullpen and start getting him accustomed to high-leverage situations. His average leverage index so far is only 0.83, which places him closer to low/medium leverage. The right-hander’s injury history already makes his long-term outlook as a starting pitcher questionable. Now, he’s in MLB, and his stuff in shorter stints out of the 'pen looks better than it did as a starter in the minor leagues.