What to expect from Pittsburgh Pirates’ top prospect Bubba Chandler in 2025

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ third-round pick from 2021 is on the verge of making a big impact in Major League Baseball in 2025. Bubba Chandler was considered one of the best prospects in his draft class, and has now ascended to being one of the consensus best prospects in all of baseball, ranking No. 7 on Baseball America's new Top 100 list for 2025.

Fans should be excited to see what he can deliver in '25, but what can they expect to see from the top prospect? And at what level?

Chandler opened the 2024 campaign at Double-A Altoona, where he had a 3.70 ERA, but a more impressive 3.25 FIP and 1.01 WHIP, in 80.1 innings of work. The right-hander had an outstanding 29.4% strikeout rate with a promising 8.1% walk rate. He also only allowed just seven home runs for a quality HR/9 rate that landed at 0.78.

Chandler did even better once he reached Triple-A. He ended the year with a 1.83 ERA, 2.78 FIP, and 1.04 WHIP throughout his final 39.1 innings of the season. Chandler struck out over a third of the opponents he faced, notching a 34% K% while only allowing a pair of home runs. His walk rate also clocked in below 10% at 9.4%. Batters swung and missed at Chandler’s pitches 33% of the time. When they did make contact, the hard-throwing right-hander only allowed an 85.3 MPH exit velocity and 3.4% barrel percentage.

Chandler sits in the upper-90s with his four-seam fastball and topped out at 99 MPH at Triple-A. The pitch grades out as his best offering, thanks to its plus movement. MLB Pipeline grades it out as a 60-grade pitch, but Baseball America is even more bullish on the offering, pinning it at a 70. Chandler’s slider is another above-average pitch that sits in the upper 80s with biting movement. BA loves his changeup, grading it out as a 60-grade offering. Finally, there’s his curveball. Although it’s his worst pitch, it still has the potential to be an average offering at the MLB level.

Where Pirates' Bubba Chandler has improved in recent years

Chandler has greatly improved his strike-throwing abilities over the last two seasons. It was never a question as to whether or not Chandler had the athleticism to improve his mechanics. When the Pirates drafted Chandler, he was taken as a two-way player and even saw some innings at shortstop in 2021. But since the second half of 2023, Chandler has walked just 8.2% of opponents, channeling that athleticism into all the right pursuits.

With all that being said, Chandler has some reasonably high expectations set upon him. MLB Pipeline ranks him as the 15th-best prospect in baseball, while Baseball America had him as the 21st-best last season, bumping him up 14 spots prior to 2025. BA even stated last year that he has No. 2 starter upside. Some even see him as a potential Rookie of the Year contender. He could become a second ace behind Paul Skenes.

Many fans are now left wondering how many innings Chandler will toss in 2025. Last season, he pitched about 120 frames. Skenes pitched about the same amount in 2023 with Louisiana State University and the minor leagues. He went on to pitch 160.1 innings in 2024 between the minor leagues and the big leagues.

Although Skenes pitched a similar amount, it isn’t a one-for-one comparison. Skenes wasn’t used to working in a five-man rotation, while Chandler has now done so for two seasons. A workload of around 140-160 innings seems like a reasonable expectation for Chandler in this upcoming season.

Chandler's ceiling is in the stratosphere. After going nearly 20 years without a Rookie of the Year winner, the Pirates could now string together back-to-back seasons with an honoree on their roster. Chandler has a very good chance of being an ace-caliber arm in a rotation with multiple pitchers with extremely high upside.