Why MLB Trade Rumors’ free agent predictions would be great for Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB Trade Rumors recently released their list of the top 50 free agents, which we covered here on Rum Bunter. Fellow writer Emma Lingan expressed distaste with their free agent predictions, but in my opinion, there's actually plenty to love about their slate of options for the Pirates.

Two separate MLB Trade Rumors writers predict the Pirates will land slugger Tyler O’Neill. O’Neill is coming off a strong rebound campaign where he hit .241/.333/.511 with a .360 wOBA and 131 wRC+ in 473 plate appearances. O’Neill, known for his power, hit 31 home runs with an isolated slugging percentage of .270. While he struck out about a third of the time (33.6% K%), he also drew walks at a hearty 11.2% rate.

O’Neill has some numbers under the hood that would make him a great fit for the Bucs. His barrel rate was an insane 17.3% in Boston. That was the fifth highest in all of baseball among players with 400+ plate appearances. O’Neill was also in the 90th percentile of xSLG% (.491) and in the 76th percentile of xwOBA (.342).

O’Neill’s defense did not grade out well, with only +1 defensive run saved and -4 outs above average. The outfielder also has below-average jump on fly balls. On the plus side, O’Neill takes decent routes and has a strong arm, which can play in any outfield corner. MLB Trade Rumors predicts O’Neill to land a three-year deal at $42 million ($14 million AAV). 

Pirates fans should love the idea of adding Tyler O’Neill. If he hits similarly to how he performed in 2024, he’d automatically become one of, if not the Pirates’ best hitter, and one of the best in the National League Central. The Pirates haven’t had a player with the potential to hit 30+ home runs in quite some time, and they’d be adding a top 20 free agent to their lineup.

Tyler O'Neill could change Pirates' 2025 lineup for the better

Another outfielder one of MLB Trade Rumors’ writers predicts the Pirates will sign is Michael Conforto. Conforto batted a quality .242/.309/.450 with a .327 wOBA and 112 wRC+ with the San Francisco Giants last season. His 8.6% walk rate was a career-low mark and represented the first time he had a sub-10% BB% since 2015. He also had a mediocre 24.2% strikeout rate. But Conforto had 20 homers and a .212 isolated slugging percentage.

Conforto had defensive numbers similar to O’Neill’s, with zero DRS and -4 OAA. He also has a below average jump with decent route running. Conforto’s arm is also well above average and sits in the 82nd percentile. Conforto only played left field this season for the Giants.

Still, there are a lot of reasons why Conforto would make an excellent fit for Pittsburgh. Conforto played in a very pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, and his splits, as well as other underlying numbers, show it. At home, Conforto had a .632 OPS, .280 wOBA, and 83 wRC+, but he had a .852 OPS, .362 wOBA, and 133 wRC+ on the road. The veteran outfielder’s 90.2 MPH exit velocity is the best he has put up since his 2016 sophomore season, and he was in the 80th percentile or better in barrel rate (11.8%), xwOBA (.352), and xSLG% (.488).

Conforto is projected to land a two-year deal at $18 million. A $9 million AAV is a steal for someone with as much potential as Conforto. Conforto has only ever twice in 10 MLB seasons been a below-average hitter by measure of wRC+. Even if he only replicates his 2024 season and puts up a 112 wRC+, not only would that make Conforto a good batter overall, but would be a massive upgrade for the Pirates and a great deal for the Bucs. There aren’t very many batters out there who are good hitters making less than $10 million a season.

Last but certainly not least is David Robertson. Despite his advancing age, Robertson is coming off one of the best seasons of his career. The last standing member of the New York Yankees’ 2009 World Series team owned a 3.00 ERA, 2.65 FIP, and 1.11 WHIP in a career-high 72 innings pitched. 

Robertson punched out just over a third of his opponents with a 33.4% K% in Texas last year, representing the highest mark he’s put up since 2017. His 0.63 HR/9 is also the best he’s posted since 2011. His 5.5% barrel rate was in the 85th percentile of fellow pitchers. It was also the fourth-best of Robertson’s career and the best he’s put up since 2017. 

Certainly, Robertson is getting older. 2025 will be his age-40 campaign, but you can’t deny the work he is still putting in. Stuff+ still had the former Yankee closer at 119. His cutter, the pitch he throws the most often, has averaged out at 93.3 MPH each of the last two seasons. 2011 was the last time he threw harder than that, and even then, it was only 93.5 MPH. It’s not as if Robertson well overperformed either, with a sub-3.00 xFIP (2.88) and SIERA (2.69). If anything, he underperformed. $11 million for only one season is a bit pricy, but it is very much worth it for someone who has been one of the most underrated bullpen arms in the game since the late-2000s. 

A lot of fans may even consider O’Neill, Conforto, and Robertson to be a perfect offseason, given the Pirates' financial standing. Adding both O’Neill and Conforto gives the Pirates a pair of quality outfielders and two decent power bats. D-Rob is a high-quality, high-leverage reliever who has plenty of experience as an effective closer.

Pirates fans should be optimistic about the upcoming offseason if this is who some experts see the team adding. If the Bucs headed into Spring Training with O’Neill, Conforto, and Robertson on their active roster, not only would it revitalize fan trust in the front office, but it would also lead to a lot more hope going into the 2025 campaign.