Why Pirates' pre-arbitration Bailey Falter deal could change trade market

The Pirates and Bailey Falter agreed on a deal to avoid an arbitration hearing on Thursday morning at $2.2 million. For a back end starting pitcher, that is a steal, and a lot of teams, in both big and small markets, would love to have a cheap southpaw that can give you quality starts at that price.

Given how the starting pitching market has played out this winter, there is a strong chance that the Pirates are now getting more calls about Falter. He won't be a free agent until after the 2028 season, and he was very consistent in 2024. He may not be an obvious All-Star candidate, but having a solid arm in the back end of a rotation for a cheap price is something any team would take.

In 2024, Falter posted an earned run average (ERA) of 4.43 with a FIP of 4.30 across 142.1 innings and struck out 97 batters. Opponents batted .254 against him and he walked hitters at a 7.6% clip to generate a 1.29 WHIP. Overall, not incredible numbers, but he gets the job done. For the price of less than $2.5 million, that type of production is very valuable.

Pirates have a lot of trade value in Bailey Falter after his cheap pre-arbitration deal.

Those numbers are very similar to the production of arms like Charlie Morton, who signed a one-year deal worth $15 million, and Frankie Montas, who got a two-year deal for $17 million a year. Some could argue that Falter is better than both of them, but it is very close. Nonetheless, all three are back-end arms, but the price difference on the free agent market is strong.

Morton put together an ERA of 4.19 with a WHIP of 1.32 and a FIP of 4.46. Montas tossed an ERA of 4.84 along with a WHIP of 1.37 and a FIP of 4.71. Looking at how similar the stats were between the three, Falter is very close to these other arms that are making significantly more money than him in 2025.

As teams like the Padres and Yankees are looking to shed payroll with Dylan Cease and Marcus Stroman, the Pirates could take advantage by offering a cheap, controllable, and reliable arm in Falter for a return that can help their offensive issues. Not saying Falter is a better arm than Cease, but money plays an important factor in shaping out rosters.

There have been no recent rumors about the Pirates having any intent to trade Falter, especially after dealing Luis Ortiz. Pittsburgh has a bright rotation future already with the emergence of Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, and Braxton Ashcraft. If they decide to utilize that group early this year, a trade of Falter could be possible, especially with his value increasing.