Wilber Dotel looks like a Pirates success story but still comes with one huge question

The Pittsburgh Pirates' pitching was a mixed bag in 2026, providing both optimism and concern for 2027. The bullpen was a major issue in the first half, but the trade deadline additions, plus Mason Montgomery's emergence, made the unit one of the top-10 in the league following the trade deadline, with a 3.54 ERA.

The starting rotation was an even more interesting cocktail of pleasant surprises and bitter disappointments. Mitch Keller fell off and failed miserably in his role as the reliable innings eater. Paul Skenes' struggles were well documented. Bubba Chandler had an uneven rookie campaign.

At the same time, Braxton Ashcraft leveled up and exceeded everyone's wildest expectations, and Jared Jones made an excellent comeback from internal brace surgery on his right UCL.

Somewhere in the middle of all of these young arms moving in different directions was Wilber Dotel. The 24-year-old got his first taste of big league action and looked the part when given the opportunity. Dotel made 22 appearances (two starts) and threw 42 1/3 innings. Over that time, he posted a 4.46 ERA, which is kind of misleading.

The young right-hander's peripherals were much better, with a 3.81 xERA, 3.22 FIP, and 3.80 xFIP, as his mix of a solid groundball rate (46.3%), strikeout rate (22.5%), and walk rate (8.8%) indicates that he has several ways to get hitters out. Add in a 98-plus miles-per-hour fastball, and you have an enticing package.

One of the most pressing questions facing Pittsburgh's pitching staff heading into the offseason is whether Dotel is best suited for a rotation spot or a bullpen job in 2027. Deciding that will go a long way towards determining what the Pirates must target this offseason.

While the rotation is best for Wilber Dotel's future value, a bullpen role makes more sense for the Pirates in 2027

If we're objectively looking at the Pirates' projected rotation for 2027, we see three surefire locks. Skenes, Ashcraft, and Jones will make up the top three. Chandler isn't etched in stone, but likely has an inside track to a spot as well.

Unless Pittsburgh dumps Keller, he's under contract through 2028, and while the Pirates could turn him into a long man out of the bullpen, you'd expect that he'll get a shot at spring training to prove that he can return to form.

Then there's the fact that the club would be wise to add a lefty to the starting staff. All of the current options on the roster are right-handed, so getting a southpaw to serve as a change of pace would be a boost. There are some intriguing options that the Pirates could target on the free-agent market, ranging from low-end options like Eric Lauer to more mid-level free agents like Trevor Rogers.

Now, this calculus could change if Dotel made a compelling enough case for inclusion. He has the kind of fearless mentality that could allow him to thrive in either role. However, he seemed more comfortable in the bullpen than anything in 2026.

The biggest deciding factor, however, has to do with where Dotel's arsenal stands at this point. The blazing fastball is his bread and butter, and he went to it 45% of the time. Behind the heater, he threw his cutter 25% of the time and his slider 21% of the time. Then, he toyed with a couple of different offerings: a splitter, a sinker, and a changeup, though none of those pitches saw Dotel go to them more than five percent of the time.

The cutter and slider have similar movement, and having a go-to pitch that has arm-side movement to handle lefties would make Dotel more viable as a starter since he'd be able to turn over a lineup multiple times much easier. There's a chance that he can develop one of these pitches in the future, but until he proves it, he's more likely to have success in the bullpen.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow