Ivan Nova Is Crazy, But It Just Might Work

The Pirates in an attempt to improve their starting rotation, acquired New York Yankees right-handed starter Ivan Nova at the trade deadline on August first. The deal sent two players to be named later for the 29-year-old right hander.

I was not a fan of the move when the trade was announced, and I’m still not sold on Ivan Nova from making a significant impact on the rotation. The young pitchers such as Tyler Glasnow, Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault, and even Trevor Williams would have been better options in my opinion, and with this trade, starts will be taken away from some of these young pitchers. By the definition of the term, Nova will be an upgrade. Francisco Liriano, who the team traded to the Blue Jays in another deal, and Jeff Locke is, well he’s Jeff Locke.

Nova, Liriano, and Locke’s 2016 season don’t come off the page screaming “we’ll be able to help get you into the playoffs!” and in fact, those three maybe best suited being referred to as Larry, Curly, and Moe due to their production so far. That’s not to take away from anything Liriano has done, from 2013-2015 he was outstanding, but this year he has been nothing short of a bottom five pitcher in baseball.

Ivan Nova does not have solid numbers, as he has a 4.90 ERA, but that number is still better than the 5.63 ERA from Jeff Locke and the 5.46 ERA from Francisco Liriano, ranking second and fourth worst in all of baseball respectively. The one thing Locke has that the other two don’t is a FIP under 5, with Nova at 5.09 and Liriano at 5.27. Nova’s SIERA, however, is the best of the three at 4.00, whereas Locke is 5.18 and Liriano is at 4.68.

When looking to see how the three pitchers will proceed in the future, Nova’s xFIP of 4.07 is better than Liriano’s 4.52 and Locke’s 4.97. Not to say, Nova will be better than Liriano, because if Frank finds his command, he’ll be back to being filthy Frank once more, and that would be better than anything Nova will likely provide. But with the numbers that the three have posted this season, Nova looks like he will be the safer bet going forward.

Comparing Ivan Nova to those two is not the reason why the crazy move could actually work. The young kids could have come back and pitched better than what Locke and Liriano have provided the Pirates in the 2016 season. Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon will make up the first two spots of the rotation, and for the third spot let’s assume it is Chad Kuhl, given that of all the other rookies he has made the most starts. Nova has the worst ERA by far, with Chad Kuhl being the closest at 4.19, and his FIP is also the worst by a large amount, and once agains Chad Kuhl is the closest with a FIP of 4.07. Nova, as of August fourth would be the unquestioned worst starter in that rotation. It’s when the looks at other numbers come into play, that makes you wonder if Nova can indeed work the way the Pirates either plan or hope.

Ivan currently posses a 5.9 percent walk rate, ranking second best of those four, with Jameson Taillon having a rate of 2.7 percent. For reference, Jeff Locke has a rate of eight percent, and Liriano is at a league worst 13.2 percent. Nova just does not walk many hitters. But the thing about Nova that sticks out the most when looking at walk rates and what hitters do, is his o-swing percentage, which measures the amount of swings a pitcher generates on pitches outside of the strike zone. Ivan Nova ranks first of the Pirates rotation at 34.7 percent, with Taillon coming in at a close second at 34.4 percent. Francisco Liriano who was so good at getting hitters to expand the zone, has an o-swing of 28.3 percent, and he has dropped every year from his 35 percent o-swing in 2013. Nova’s current mark is very close to the mark that Liriano had in his first season with the Bucs, which ended with him getting the nod and pitching very well in the Wild Card game three of the Divisional Series. Nova has been getting hitters to expand the zone.

The one difference, despite having similar o-swing rate, is the strikeout rates. Ivan Nova’s 17.8 percent strikeout rate, is third best of the four, with Chad Kuhl coming in last, and compared to Liriano’s 22.2 percent. Nova doesn’t put away hitters with the strike out, despite getting hitters to expand their zones. Part of that problem lies in the o-contact rates, which measures is the number of times contact is made on pitches outside of the zone divided by the swings on pitches outside the zone. Nova’s o-contact is 63.9 percent, only Chad Kuhl’s is lower, and Francisco Liriano has a 52.1 percent o-contact. That explains part of the reasoning for the strikeout rates being rather large of a difference compared to the o-swing percentages as a whole.

The other thing that Nova provides is his groundball rate of 54.3 percent, only Taillon is better at 54.7 percent. Jeff Locke is at 46.5 percent and 51.9 percent, so Nova gets grounballs better than the other two in the rotation, and better than the two no longer in the rotation, assuming after last night Locke is gone.

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There is some downside to Ivan Nova, however. His home run to fly ball ratio this season is 21.3 percent and his home rate is 4.5 percent. Jon Niese has a 22 percent home run to fly ball rate and a home rate of 4.4 percent, and it was 4.3 percent as a Pirate.  Nova has also allowed a home run in 14 of his last 15 outings, 19 home runs allowed overall, and he had a stretch from May 9th to June 27th where he allowed a home run in ten straight games.

Ivan Nova also failed to allow a home run in his first four starts, and only one home run in his first six starts, so a there’s been a massive increase in his home runs allowed. Another concerning measure is his home and road splits, consider that he plays in a launching pad to right field against American League teams. His home ERA is 3.42, while on the road Nova has posted a 6.65 ERA. There is a lot of good to work with Nova, but some rather concerning points as well.

But to end on a good note, Nova has a better ERA while starting, both are not the best though, as it’s a 4.86 ERA in 15 starts and a 5.14 ERA in 6 relief appearances. In the month of July, Nova has posted a 3.86 ERA in five starts, and a 3.63 ERA in three starts after the All-Star break. Both of these include a start in which he lasted only 4.1 innings and five runs in his last start against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Related Story: Jeff Locke Must Go

With Ivan Nova, there is concern given his ability to serve up the long ball. But with his o-swing percentage, low walk percentage, and groundball percentage, there is a lot of good to work with. Nova was not my first choice of players I wanted the Pirates to acquire, he still really is not who I want to see taking the ball every fifth day over the young arms, but with the Pirates track records of working with pitchers like Ivan Nova, it may just be crazy enough to work.

*Numbers from baseball-reference and fangraphs