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Pittsburgh Pirates: Notes From The Weekend

By David Slusser

Apr 16, 2017; Chicago, IL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates left fielder Adam Frazier (26) and center fielder Starling Marte (6) and right fielder Andrew McCutchen (22) point to the right field bleachers following the ninth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Pittsburgh won 6-1. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 16, 2017; Chicago, IL, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates left fielder Adam Frazier (26) and center fielder Starling Marte (6) and right fielder Andrew McCutchen (22) point to the right field bleachers following the ninth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Pittsburgh won 6-1. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports /
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What a weekend for the Pittsburgh Pirates.  After getting swept by the Cincinnati Reds and blowing the makeup game against the Red Sox to complete getting swept, the Pirates came back with a sweep of their own.  Here are some notes.

  • The Pirates had win probabilities of 61.6, 60.0, and 60.7 percent against the Reds according to fangraphs.  The probability of them getting swept was just 5.13 percent.  Against the Cubs, their win probabilities were 38.8, 34.1, and 35.8 percent, and the probability of sweeping was 4.74 percent.  The probability of getting swept by the Reds and then sweeping the Cubs was just 0.24 percent.
  • Friday: After a Kyle Schwarber single to score Javier Baez, the Cubs had a win probability of 71.3 percent.  David Freese and Francisco Cervelli thwarted that in the next inning, and the Pirates took a 4-2 lead after six.  Tony Watson made things fun in the ninth, but he got the job done.
  • Saturday: Tyler Glasnow pitched game two and he was much better than he was in his first outing.  But he still gave up runs.  After Addison Russell doubled in two in the third, the Cubs’ win probability became 91.9 percent.  The Pirates had other plans, scoring five in the fifth to turn things around.  Down 6-5, Andrew McCutchen blasted a three-run home run to give the Pirates a lead, giving the Pirates a win probability of 79.4 percent.  Tony Watson once again made things interesting, as Kris Bryant hit a wind-blown home run to cut the lead to one, but the Bucs won again.
  • Sunday: The Pirates and Cubs played another tight one on Sunday.  Jameson Taillon and Adam Frazier pitched game.  A Tommy La Stella double… err error…. err why did Adam Frazier take the sine function route to the baseball? led to a run and a Cubs win expectancy of 90.1 percent.  Frazier made up for things with a double, putting runners on first and second in the top half of the inning.  The Pirates scored three runs, with an average exit velocity of 66.7 miles per hour and a range of 27.2-87.5 miles per hour.  Frazier finished things off with a 103.2 mile per hour and 432 foot home run.

Next: Pirates Pitchers Have A BAbip Problem

That was the weekend.  A sweep with some unreal comeback chances.  The Pirates play the St. Louis Cardinals for three games.  The matchups are Ivan Nova against Lance Lynn (45.7 percent win probability), Chad Kuhl against Mike Leake (41), and Gerrit Cole against Michael Wacha (47.4).

*Numbers from baseball savant and win probabilities from fangraphs

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