Series Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds

The day has finally arrived.  All of the debate over spring training, all of the hand-wringing over trades and signings, it’s all finally behind us.  Today your Pittsburgh Pirates will take the field, the games will matter, and everything will feel right in our world again.

Baseball is finally back.

For the first time since 2011, the Pittsburgh Pirates open the season on the road, against their NL Central rival Cincinnati Reds.  The Bucs carry a 69-59 record on their previous 128 openers, including a walk-off win against the Chicaco Cubs last year, shown below in case you had forgotten.

Francisco Liriano makes the Opening Day start for the second consecutive year.  Curiously enough, the last Pirate to make two consecutive Opening Day starts was another lefty in Oliver Perez, who got the honor in 2005-2006.

Probable Pitching Match-ups (2014 stats):
Monday, 4:10 pm – Francisco Liriano/LHP (7-10, 3.38 ERA) v. Johnny Cueto/RHP (20-9, 2.25)
Wednesday, 7:10 pm – Gerrit Cole/RHP (11-5, 3.65 ERA) v. Mike Leake/RHP (11-13, 3.70)
Thursday, 12:35 pm – A.J. Burnett/RHP (8-18, 4.59 ERA) v. Anthony DeSclafani (2-2, 6.27 ERA)

Comments on Pitching Match-ups

All conversation on the Reds’ pitching staff begins and ends with Johnny Cueto.  The Reds dealt away hurlers Alfredo Simon and Mat Latos over the offseason.  Homer Bailey will start the season on the DL, leaving Cueto and Leake to carry the load for a rotation that is sure to take its lumps this year.  DeSclafani pitched 33 innings for the Reds in 2014, his first in the majors.  He posted a robust 6.27 ERA, going 2-2 in the process.  Again, all eyes are on Cueto as he attempts to recreate his Cy-Young-worthy 2014.  Cueto’s career numbers against the Pirates regulars are seen below:

Even considering Cueto, the clear edge in starting pitching goes to the Bucs, and they would do well to capitalize.  Getting to the starting pitching would ensure that Aroldis Chapman is not a factor.

Liriano did struggle against the Reds last season, posting a 4.50 ERA in five starts against he club in 2014, including a 4-0 loss to Johnny Cueto early in the year.

Series Predictions – The Reds were decimated by injury last year, with key hitters Joey Votto and Jay Bruce severely limited.  They are back this year, with Marlon Byrd, the Reds’ big off-season acquisition, in tow.  Despite their healthy rebound, I believe the Pirates take advantage of Great American Ballpark and flex their newfound offensive muscle.  The Pirates take all three games and start the season with a sweep.

2014 Meetings:
The Pittsburgh Pirates had the “distinction” of being one of the teams the Reds feasted upon in 2014, having put up a record of 7-12 against the Ohio club, including a 3-6 record in Cincinnati.  The Bucs were outscored 92-67 in 19 games.

Franchise History:
Pittsburgh holds an all-time advantage of 1160-1145 against their longtime rivals, which includes a mark of 536-626 in Cincy.

Next: Pirates depth options that can contribute in 2015