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For the first time this season, the Pittsburgh Pirates get set to face their cross-state “rivals,” the Philadelphia Phillies. The Pirates come in at 15-16, third in the National League Central, fresh off of a 4-3 win over the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday. The Phillies come into the series at 11-21 overall, good for last in the National League East and tied for the worst record in the National League. The Phillies lost 7-4 on Sunday to the New York Mets.
The series is in Philadelphia at Citizens Bank Park, where the Phillies are 7-8 on the year. The Pirates hold a 6-9 record on the road. The Phillies are 7-8 at home but have lost two in a row and have won only three games out of their last ten, while the Pirates have won two in a row, but are 4-6 in their last ten games.
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The offenses for both teams have not been great so far this season. The Pirates rank 12th in the National League in runs scored and 13th in batting average, but the Phillies are worse, coming in dead last in both runs scored and average. Pitching is where Pittsburgh shines, ranking third in team ERA and sixth in batting average against. Philadelphia doesn’t have the pitching to offset their offense like Pittsburgh does, ranking 12th in ERA and 14th in batting average against.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Monday, 5/11, 7:05 PM – RHP Gerrit Cole (4-1, 2.27 ERA) v. RHP Jerome Williams (2-2, 5.18 ERA)
Tuesday, 5/12, 7:05 PM – RHP A.J. Burnett (1-1, 1.66 ERA) v. RHP Sean O’Sullivan (0-1, 4.91 ERA)
Wednesday, 5/13, 7:05 PM – LHP Francisco Liriano (1-2, 2.79 ERA) v. LHP Cole Hamels (2-3, 3.68 ERA)
Thursday, 5/14, 1:05 PM – RHP Vance Worley (2-2, 4.63 ERA) v. RHP Aaron Harang (3-3, 2.38 ERA)
Analysis of Pitching Matchups
The Pirates will send out their top three pitchers to start the series, all of whom could be aces on just about any staff in baseball with the way each of them are pitching now. The Phillies employ an all right-handed rotation outside of Cole Hamels, and the Pirates will see the Phillies’ ace (Hamels) in game three, even though Aaron Harang has been pitching like the ace of the Philadelphia staff so far this season. Let’s take a look at how each Pirate position player has fared in his career against each Philadelphia pitcher they will face.
Jerome Williams
Pedro Alvarez – 2/3, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 0 BBs, 0 Ks, .667/.667/2.000
Neil Walker – 2/6, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 1 K, .333/.333/.500
Jordy Mercer – 1/5, 0 HRs, 1 RBI, 0 BBs, 2 Ks, .200/.200/.200
Josh Harrison – 1/2, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 0 Ks, .500/.667/.500
Francisco Cervelli – N/A
Starling Marte – 0/5, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 1 K, .000/.167/.000
Andrew McCutchen – 3/6, 2 HRs, 2 RBIs, 0 BBs, 1 K, .500/.500/1.500
Gregory Polanco – N/A
Jung Ho Kang – N/A
Sean Rodriguez – 1/5, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 1 K, .200/.200/.200
Corey Hart – 1/3, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 0 Ks, .333/.333/.333
Chris Stewart – 1/4, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, o BBs, 1 K, .250/.250/.250
Steve Lombardozzi – N/A
Most of the regulars in the lineup have accumulated hits against Williams, but no one has had many at-bats against him. McCutchen should do well against him, while Marte may have the opportunity to finally break out against him. It will be interesting to see how Cervelli and Polanco bat against Williams, considering they’ve never faced him. On the year, Williams isn’t off to a great start, and has never been more than a four or five starter outside of his first few years in the league. Expect the Pirate lineup to do well against him.
Sean O’Sullivan
Pedro Alvarez – N/A
Neil Walker – N/A
Jordy Mercer – N/A
Josh Harrison – N/A
Francisco Cervelli – 1/2, 0 HRs, 2 RBIs, 1 BB, 0 Ks, .500/.667/1.000
Starling Marte – N/A
Andrew McCutchen – N/A
Gregory Polanco – 0/1, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 0 Ks, .000/.000/.000
Jung Ho Kang – N/A
Sean Rodriguez – N/A
Corey Hart – N/A
Chris Stewart – N/A
Steve Lombardozzi – N/A
Sean O’Sullivan pitched much of his career in the American League for the Los Angeles Angels and the Kansas City Royals, so it makes sense that just about none of the Pirate lineup has faced him yet. O’Sullivan has never been a great pitcher, and isn’t off to a hot start this season either. His WHIP has always been high, so this may be the game where Pirate batters take the most walks.
Cole Hamels
Pedro Alvarez – 1/7, 0 HRs, 1 RBI, 0 BBs, 5 Ks, .143/.143/.286
Neil Walker – 1/10, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 1 K, .100/.100/.100
Jordy Mercer – N/A
Josh Harrison – 0/3, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 0 Ks, .000/.000/.000
Francisco Cervelli – 1/2, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 0 Ks, .500/.500/1.000
Starling Marte – 3/7, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 2 Ks, .429/.429/.571
Andrew McCutchen – 5/19, 1 HR, 4 RBIs, 1 BB, 2 Ks, .263/.300/.474
Gregory Polanco – N/A
Jung Ho Kang – N/A
Sean Rodriguez – 1/3, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 1 K, .333/.333/.333
Corey Hart – 8/31, 2 HRs, 2 RBIs, 0 BBs, 8 Ks, .258/.258/.452
Chris Stewart – N/A
Steve Lombardozzi – 1/12, 0 HRs, 2 RBIs, 0 BBs, 1 K, .083/.083/.167
The perennial ace for the Philadelphia staff is having a decent season so far. Most of the Pirate batters have seen him in action, and none have fared too well against him. One item of note: Corey Hart has good power numbers against Hamels. That, combined with Alvarez’s lack of production against him, and the fact that Hamels is a lefty, may force Hurdle’s hand on Wednesday night even though Hart hasn’t had a great season so far.
Aaron Harang
Pedro Alvarez – 1/11, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 5 Ks, .091/.091/.091
Neil Walker – 3/16, 0 HRs, 2 RBIs, 0 BBs, 1 K, .188/.188/.188
Jordy Mercer – 1/8, o HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 4 Ks, .125/.125/.125
Josh Harrison – 1/8, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 1 K, .125/.125/.125
Francisco Cervelli – N/A
Starling Marte – 5/12, 0 HRs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 2 Ks, .417/.462/.417
Andrew McCutchen – 6/20, 1 HR, 2 RBIs, 3 BBs, 2 Ks, .300/.391/.500
Gregory Polanco – N/A
Jung Ho Kang – N/A
Sean Rodriguez – N/A
Corey Hart – 10/33, 1 HR, 5 RBIs, 1 BB, 10 Ks, .303/.324/.485
Chris Stewart – N/A
Steve Lombardozzi – N/A
Harang has the best ERA on the staff for the Phillies so far this season. The veteran has spent almost his entire career in the National League, so many Pirates have seen his stuff before. Harang had many great seasons when he pitched with the Cincinnati Reds in the mid-2000s, but he he’s fallen off as of late, mostly due to age. But he’s coming off a good 2014 and is off to a hot start in 2015, so he may be the toughest test the Pirates face in this series. Again, Corey Hart has put up good numbers against Harang, so watch for his name to be a possibility for the starting lineup on Thursday afternoon.
Series Prediction
The Philadelphia Phillies were predicted by many to be a bottom-feeder in the National League this season, and their play so far has spoken to that. Expect the Pittsburgh Pirates to take at least two out of three at Citizens Bank Park, with a strong possibility of three out of four. The way the Pirates’ offense is playing, coupled with the team sending out its top three pitchers (Cole, Burnett, and Liriano), should make this series very one-sided.