What can we expect from J.A. Happ?

One of the late trades the Pirates made before the trade deadline on Friday was the acquisition of starter J.A. Happ from the Seattle Mariners. One of the primary reasons Huntington did this had to be because A.J. Burnett was about to be placed on the 15-day disabled list due to elbow inflammation. Happ cannot replace Burnett’s production. At least, he can’t replace what Burnett had been doing for most of the season up until his recent struggles. What does Happ bring to the table?

Happ is a veteran starter that has pitched for a multitude of teams throughout his career. He’s pitched in both the National and American Leagues, and has been traded multiple times. He’s also a lefty, but he’s never made 30 starts in a season. He’s a rental, so he might be trying to pitch for a decent contract.

Happ has a 4.64 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP this season, and has thrown 82 strikeouts to 32 walks. He’s been barely above replacement level, but has a FIP of 4.07, lower than his ERA. Career-wise, Happ has a 4.29 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP, as well as a 4.32 FIP. Thus, you know what you’re getting with Happ. He also has a 42.1% ground-ball rate, much different from the ground-ball heavy staff the Pirates typically employ.

Giving up Adrian Sampson for Happ may seem like a high price to some people, but Huntington was dealing from an area of strength. Sampson also only had an outside shot of contributing at the major league level this season, and the team needed immediate help with Burnett’s injury.

According to Fangraphs, Happ throws four pitches: a fastball, a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. This season, he’s thrown his fastball 63.7% of the time, his slider 12.8% of the time, his curveball 11.6% of the time, and his changeup 11.9% of the time. For his career, the changeup is typically his second-most thrown pitch, and he used to throw a cutter, but doesn’t anymore.

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So, what will you see from Happ? He’s had a few rough recent starts, and he pitched on a bad Seattle Mariners club, so coming to a contending team might help him pitch better. After all, he’s only pitched in one winning contest in his last 12 outings, which could be tough mentally to deal with. Per outing, Happ averages about five innings pitched, six hits, two runs, four walks, one strikeout, and 88 pitches.

Happ’s inability this season to pitch deep into games could put a strain on the bullpen. He also doesn’t strikeout a lot of batters and doesn’t make up for it with a high groundball rate. The number of flyballs he gives up, however, shouldn’t hurt the team too much with the range Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, and Gregory Polanco display in the outfield. He gives up about one home run every other start, so his fly balls don’t hurt the team too often. It’s also important to note that his stats this year have been hurt by his two most recent starts, where he lasted only 1.2 innings and 3.1 innings, respectively, and gave up a total of nine earned runs.

J.A. Happ will not be an upgrade over Burnett, and no one should expect him to be. He’s a lefty, and is coming over from the AL, so he has that going for him. But he’s struggled recently, just like Burnett, and has been worse this season overall than Burnett has been. He strikes out far fewer batters and walks a few more batters per outing than Burnett, and has nowhere near the groundball rate that A.J. has. It’ll be interesting to see what Searage can do with Happ, and what his move to the NL and pitching for a team that often emphasizes defense does for him. I expect him to be merely an average to below average starter for the time being, and would be pleasantly surprised if he pitches better than that.

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