Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates wrap up regular season against Reds

The Pittsburgh Pirates (96-63) welcome the Cincinnati Reds (63-95) into PNC Park for the final three game set of the 2015 regular season with their playoff positioning just about solidified. With a two game lead on the Chicago Cubs, the Pirates desperately need a series win to secure home field advantage in the National League wildcard game.

Their obstacle, the Reds, have made life tough for the Pirates this year. The Pirates have gone 6-10 against the Reds, dropping three of the five series the two clubs have played this season. In fact, a huge reason this Pirates team couldn’t track down the Cardinals (100-59) and win the division is because they couldn’t beat the division. The Pirates are just 32-41 against the NL Central, while they are 51-15 against the rest of the NL and 13-7 against the American League.

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The Pirates have to be careful not to look ahead to Jake Arrieta and the Cubs. While the Cubs have to sweep the lowly Brewers to put the pressure on the Pirates for home field advantage, the Pirates need to focus on taking care of business against a team that has really been a pain for them.

In order to do this, they’ll need much more production out of their superstar center fielder, Andrew McCutchen. Cutch is batting a lowly .237 in September. Granted he has drawn 27 walks in 28 games, he has just two home runs on the month. Luckily left fielder Starling Marte has picked up in a big way, batting .311 with a team high 16 RBIs along with second baseman Neil Walker.

Another bright spot for the Bucs has been the production they’ve gotten out of first base. What was by far the club’s biggest weakness has now turned positive for the Pirates, with the platoon combination of Michael Morse and Pedro Alvarez going 24-91 (.264) with six home runs and 15 RBIs.

The Reds, losers of their last 12 games, will counter with Joey Votto, who has quietly put together an incredible season on a less-than stellar team. The first baseman for the Reds has gotten on base in the last 47 games, five short of the all-time record set by Kevin Millar in 2007. On the year, Votto has an on-base percentage that leads the NL at .463, accompanied by a .317 average, 29 home runs, and 79 RBIs.

Votto is part of the big three, which includes himself, second baseman Brandon Phillips (.291 average, 12 home runs, 70 RBIs), and third baseman Todd Frazier (.256 average, 35 home runs, 88 RBIs). If the Pirates pitchers can limit these three, they have every chance in the world to put up two or three victories in these last few days of the regular season.

Now let’s look at the pitching matchups in the upcoming series between the Pirates and the Reds:

Friday, 10/1, 7:05 p.m. – LHP Francisco Liriano (12-7, 3.27 ERA) vs. RHP Keyvius Sampson (2-6, 6.46 ERA)

Saturday, 10/2, 7:05 p.m. – RHP A.J. Burnett (9-6, 3.15 ERA) vs. LHP Brandon Finnegan (4-2, 3.86 ERA)

Sunday, 10/3, 3:05 p.m. – LHP J.A. Happ (10-8, 3.74 ERA) vs. RHP Josh Smith (0-3, 7.22 ERA)

Pitching Analysis:

Things have gotten pretty dire for the Reds pitching rotation. If they aren’t rookies, they’re bullpen guys. The Pirates come down the stretch with Liriano, who has not only been one of the most consistent performers on this roster, but their hottest batter right now. Liriano is an astounding 5-12 on the month, considering his career average is a pedestrian .121, which has jumped considerably since 11 of his 21 career hits have come this season. Burnett and Happ will also take the mound in this series, with Batman making his final regular season start and Happ coming off of a dominant performance against the Cardinals.

Now let’s look at how the Pirates lineup has fared against the projected starting pitching of the Reds: 

Sampson

Sampson has taken the loss in both decisions against the Bucs that he started, as the 24 year old has been lit up for eight earned runs in 11 1/3 innings of work split between three appearances. Neil Walker has taken Sampson deep, while Marte and right fielder Gregory Polanco have earned doubles against him.

Finnegan

Finnegan has two plate appearances all-time against current Pirates, so this appearance will be a bit of a wildcard of its own this Saturday. He was used as a bullpen arm for the Kansas City Royals before being acquired in a trade. In his three starts for the Reds, he’s 1-2, and has allowed a whopping 10 runs in 15 innings, including five home runs.

Smith

Smith made his MLB debut against the Pirates, getting rocked for four runs in three innings. His second time around went a bit more smoothly, as he went two clean innings, allowing just one hit. Smith is coming off of a performance against the Cubs where he struck out seven in five innings, but also gave up four runs. With an ERA north of seven, Smith has yet to really find any footing in baseball’s premier league.

Hitter to avoid- Joey Votto 

Though his performance against the Bucs- a .284 career average, including .281 this season (16-57) is impressive, it has to be restated that Votto’s 47 game on-base streak is something to marvel at. Votto comes into this series as hot as anyone in the league, and is looking to cap a great season with nothing to lose. While Friday night’s starter, Liriano, has kept Votto to a lackluster 4-24 (.167) with only a home run to speak of, Votto is a combined 18-50 (.360) against Burnett and Happ, including a home run, five doubles, and nine RBIs. The Bucs have to be careful coming down the stretch not to let Votto play spoiler, or else the division won’t be the only thing the Pirates can wave goodbye to this week. Votto has to be careful not to run into Travis Snyder, who struck him out in a relief appearance, rare for the outfielder.

Series Prediction

Yes, the Reds are 10-6 against the Priates. Yes, the Pirates have gone 32-41 overall against their division this year. Yes, Joey Votto has been unstoppable. But this Reds team is depleted to the core aside from a few bats in the lineup, and the Pirates have too much on the line not to get the ball rolling into a wildcard game in front of their own fans at PNC Park.

Final Prediction- Pirates take two of three, finish regular season at 98-64. 

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