Gerrit Cole Third Time Through The Order Struggles

Gerrit Cole started the season off strong, posting a 2.84 ERA in his first nine starts.  However, over his last three starts he has a 9.82 ERA.  Home runs have been a problem, but so has pitching through the order a third time.

From 2013-16 Gerrit Cole had a .319 wOBA against, which ranks him 114 out of 189 pitchers with 50 or more innings the third time through the order, that puts him in the 39.8th percentile.  His 4.50 ERA ranks him 66th, the 65.4 percentile, and puts him between Scott Kazmir and Shelby Miller.  His ERA is better than Justin Verlander and Jose Quintana, but worse than a Kevin Correia and Vance Worley.

Of course innings matter, and 50 innings is not a lot, Cole is at 154.  When you double the innings, making it a minimum of 100 innings pitched, Cole ranks 48 of 122 pitchers, the 61.9 percentile, in terms of ERA.  His wOBA against ranks 71, or the 42.1 percentile.

He has not been very good the third time through the order, but this season he has been even worse.  Gerrit Cole’s .455 wOBA is the fifth worst, ranking between former UCLA teammate Trevor Bauer and Miguel Gonzalez.  He ranks in the 3.3 percentile.  His 9.68 ERA is the ninth worst and is the 9.6 percentile.  He is between Bronson Arroyo and Bartolo Colon.

Even before these final three starts, in which he had a 2.84 ERA, Cole had a .332 wOBA and 6.00 ERA.  He wasn’t pitching well the third time through, it’s just been magnified even more over the last three starts, an .806 wOBA and 30.37 ERA.

Next: Tony Watson Should Stop Pitching High Leverage

Part of the problem has been the amount of line drives that Cole has allowed the third time through.  His fourseam the first two times through have line drives per ball in play of 28.61 and 25.79, but the third time through it is up to 30.24.  This has resulted in a large increase in slugging.  Below is the slugging on each pitch in 2017 by each time through the order from brooks baseball:

Gerrit Cole’s struggles have been noted this season.  Most of the troubles have come through when pitching for the third time through the order.  With relievers such as Felipe Rivero and Juan Nicasio, both who can be used in high leverage situations and go multiple innings, the Pirates need to keep a watch on Cole.  You’re always dealing until you’re not, and Cole has usually not been dealing the third time through the order.

*Numbers from fangraphs