Pittsburgh Pirates: Projecting the Starting Rotation

Joe Musgrove

With Taillon and Archer out for the season, Joe Musgrove enters the 2020 campaign as the leader of the starting rotation for the Pittsburgh Pirates. To be honest, even if Archer was healthy Musgrove would likely still slot ahead of him.

While nothing has been set in stone yet by manager Derek Shelton, Musgrove appears to be the odds on favorite to take the ball for the Bucs on Opening Day in St. Louis. Big Joe is coming off a 2019 season in which he set new career highs in starts (31), appearances (32), innings pitched (170.1), strikeout ate (21.9%), and fWAR (3.3).

While Musgrove’s 4.44 ERA was nothing special, his 3.82 FIP and 3.59 DRA indicate he was better than his ERA. He also finished the season strong, posting a 3.74 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 0.59 HR/9, 5.3% walk rate, and a 25.7% strikeout rate. A big reason for this strong finish was an increase in the usage of his slider.

Early in the offseason we discussed why 2020 could be the year of Joe Musgrove. If the Pirates are going to have any shot at surprising people and being contenders this season, Musgrove must take the step forward that he is capable of taking. Throwing his slider more would help Musgrove go a long way toward taking this step.

Trevor Williams

Right-handed pitcher Trevor Williams joined the Pirate starting rotation in May 2017. From his first start with the Bucs on May 8, 2017, until he went on the injured list following a start on May 16, 2019, Williams made 65 starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates. In these 65 starts, Williams was quietly one of the best starting pitchers in the National League.

In these 65 starts Williams logged 363.1 innings, posting a 3.47 ERA and 3.81 FIP. He allowed just 31 home runs, 7.3% walk rate and 18.2% strikeout rate. He posted a 2.5 fWAR in 2017, 2.7 fWAR in 2018 and he owned a 1.3 fWAR when he went on the injured list following a start against the San Diego Padres last May.

A little over a month after hitting the injured list, Williams returned to the mound on June 25. In his final 16 starts, Williams was nowhere near the pitcher he was in the previous 65. Williams posted a 6.23 ERA, 6.17 FIP, 8.7% walk rate, 16.4% strikeout rate, and he allowed 21 home runs.

This leaves Williams looking to bounce back in 2020.

During the shutdown, Williams worked closely with new pitching coach Oscar Marin. Williams has raved about the work he and Marin accomplished. Hopefully, this will help him get back on track in 2020. Williams rediscovering his old self could be one of the biggest wild cards for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2020.

Mitch Keller

Entering the 2019 season, expectations were high for Mitch Keller. In addition to entering the season ranked as the top prospect for the Pittsburgh Pirates, Keller was expected to make his MLB debut in 2019. Keller would indeed make his MLB debut, but this is where expectations would stop being met.

Keller made 11 starts for the Pirates and logged 48 innings of work. In these 48 innings of work, he posted a poor 7.13 ERA. However, the rest of his stats paint a much different picture for the righty.

Keller was burnt by a .475 batting average on balls in play. A BAbip above .300 indicates a pitcher that was burnt by poor defense and/or bad luck. But .475? Well, it was the highest in a single season in MLB history for a pitcher that pitched at least 40 innings.

To go along with his unsustainably high BAbip, Keller had a strong 3.19 FIP to go with a terrific 28.6% strikeout rate. His fastball spin rate was in the 91st percentile and his curveball spin was in the 85th percentile.

Keller has the stuff to be a top of the rotation starting pitcher at the MLB level. He has been working with Marin to throw his fastball up in the zone more to generate additional swings and misses. This should make a big difference for Keller in 2020.  Do not be surprised to see Keller breakout in 2020.

Derek Holland

In 2018, lefty Derek Holland was one of the biggest surprises in the National League. Appearing in 36 games, 30 starts, with the San Francisco Giants, Holland posted a 3.57 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 23.3% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate, 1.00 HR/9, and a 2.2 fWAR. All of this came in 171.1 innings of work.

Holland appeared to be in a position to have a successful 2020 following his 2019 season. However, this would not come to fruition. After struggling with the Giants, he was designated for assignment and claimed off waiver by the Chicago Cubs where his struggles would continue.

Holland pitched in 51 games, with just eight being starts, in 2019. Logging 84.1 innings of work between the Giants and Cubs, Holland owned a 6.08 ERA, 6.10 FIP, 2.13 HR/9, 12.0% walk rate, and a 21.8% strikeout rate.

Due to his 2019 struggles, when Holland signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates as a minor league free agent is was no guarantee that he would earn a spot on the roster let alone the starting rotation. Well, after Archer’s surgery and Holland’s success in the Grapefruit League, he will be a part of the team’s starting rotation in 2020.

Holland will be a veteran presence in the Pirate starting rotation in 2020. He has both postseason and World Series experience, and can be a veteran brain for the team’s young starters to pick in 2020.

Steven Brault and Chad Kuhl

Entering the Grapefruit League schedule, the battle for the final spot in the team’s starting rotation appeared to be a battle between Holland, Steven Brault and Chad Kuhl. With Archer out of the picture and Holland now locked into the rotation, that leaves one spot. Well, it appears, at least to start the season, both Brault and Kuhl will get an opportunity.

Prior to the coronavirus delaying the start of the season it appeared the team would ease Kuhl back into things following Tommy John Surgery and have him start the season in the bullpen or at the Triple-A level. Now, all signs point toward he and Brault piggybacking starts as the team’s 5th starting pitcher.

Kuhl has not pitched at the MLB level since 2018, but possesses some wicked stuff. While he has yet to find consistency at the MLB level, he possesses as fastball that can hit triple digits to go with a plus curveball and slider. If Kuhl is healthy and the new staff can un-tap his potential, he cna become a strong middle of the rotation arm.

As for Brault, at one point in 2019 he appeared to be turning a corner as a MLB starter. During a 15 game, 13 of which were starts, stretch from May 18 through September 1, Brault pitched to the tune of a 2.97 ERA and a 3.67 FIP in 78.2 innings of work. He allowed just four home runs, walked 9.5% of batters faced and posted a strikeout rate of 18.4%.

Despite this stretch, due to a disastrous start and finish to the season, Brault finished the 2019 season with a 5.16 ERA and a 4.76 FIP. He allowed home runs a 1.19 per 9 rate, walked 10.5% of batters faced and struck out 19.8% in 113.1 innings of work.

While Brault and Kuhl will start the season sharing starting duties, the Pirates’ hope is likely that Kuhl will take the bull by the horns. With his superior stuff, Kuhl has the much higher ceiling of the two pitchers.