Pittsburgh Pirates: The Perfect Trade Partner For Joe Musgrove

With the Pittsburgh Pirates shopping Joe Musgrove, the Toronto Blue Jays would make a perfect fit in a Musgrove trade for multiple reasons.

The free agent market this winter has not been very active. Many of the top free agents like J.T. Realmuto, Trevor Bauer, Marcell Ozuna, D.J. LeMahieu and George Springer remain unsigned. However, the trade market has been extremely active and this is where the Pittsburgh Pirates will look to strike.

The Chicago White Sox made one of the first of the big moves this offseason trading for Texas Rangers’ ace Lance Lynn. The Padres have made two of the most prominent moves, acquiring aces Yu Darvish from the Chicago Cubs and Blake Snell from the Tampa Bay Rays. The New York Mets recently acquired an MVP candidate in Francisco Lindor and one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball, Carlos Carrasco from the Cleveland Indians.

Many of the best pitchers have been taken off the market, but there are still a handful of talented pitchers left available in trades and a handful of teams looking for starting pitching. One of the most rumored names to be moved is Pittsburgh Pirates starter Joe Musgrove and a team looking for some starting pitching help is the Toronto Blue Jays. These two teams make a perfect match in a Musgrove deal.

Musgrove is coming off a strong 2020 campaign where he put up a 3.86 ERA, 3.42 FIP and 1.24 WHIP in 39.2 innings of work. Musgrove got a lot more swings and misses in 2020 compared to his first two years with the Pittsburgh Pirates as his strikeout rate rose to 33.1%. This did come at the cost of his control though as he walked 9.6% of the batters he faced compared to a 5.1% rate between the two years prior. He also put up a sub-4.00 deserved run average mark, making this the third straight year in a row he’s put up a sub-4.00 DRA and FIP.

Musgrove ranked in the top 80th or better percentile in xBA (.197), xERA (3.23), xSLG (.311), fastball spin rate (2451 RPM) and exit velocity (85.1 MPH). He’s also been able to generate ground balls at an above average rate during his time with the Pittsburgh Pirates having a 45.2% mark overall and 48.4% rate in 2020. This pairs well with his ability to induce soft contact.

What makes Musgrove so valuable to a team is his affordability and control. The right hander has two arbitration years remaining. This year, he’s projected to make less than $5 million. He’s averaged over 3 fWAR over the course of an entire season since getting to Pittsburgh, making his contract very attractive to a team looking into him as a potential trade candidate.

The Blue Jays on the other hand are looking to add to a young and talented core. Currently, their line-up is stacked, consisting of sluggers like Vlad Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Randal Grichuck and Rowdy Tellez.

But it’s the pitching staff that needs work. Korean Southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu is an ace caliber pitcher as he has finished top-3 in Cy Young voting the last two seasons. However, past him, the Jays rotation is very shallow. Nate Pearson is ranked as a top 10 prospect in all of baseball, but is still very unproven with less than 50 innings pitched above the Double-A level. While he seems to have the leg up on a rotation spot, the last three spots leave much to be desired, especially for a team that has as much young hitting talent as they have and a potential front runner for the American League East.

The Jays brought back lefty Robbie Ray on a one-year deal. However, home runs and walks were major issues for him in 2020. He surrendered 13 home runs and gave up 45 free passes in 51.2 innings of work. In the last three years Ray has either walked a batter, given up a home run or struck the batter out 47.8% of the time while posting an ERA and FIP above 4.50.

Tanner Roark gave up 36 earned runs in just 47.2 innings of work on 14 home run. The last spot is up for grabs as Trent Thorton, Tom Hatch, Julian Merryweather, Anthony Kay, T.J. Zeuch, Ross Stripling and Shun Yamaguchi.

Clearly, the Jays’ rotation needs some stability. Not only do they make a good match in a Pittsburgh Pirates Musgrove trade because they are in the market for starters, but also because they have a deep farm system.

While many of their top prospects have graduated their status, they still have many pieces that would intrigue the Pittsburgh Pirates. Their most notable prospect that would be available in trade talks is right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson. Richardson is a top 70 prospect according to FanGraphs and Baseball America. He was sent from the New York Mets to the Jays in a trade for another notable starting pitcher, Marcus Stroman. However, he’s far from their only likely available prospect. 2019 first-round pick Alek Manoah, catching prospects Alejandro Kirk, who the Pirates previously expressed interest in, and Gabriel Monero would also be pieces to look for in a Musgrove to Jays trade.

It also helps that Ben Cherington was Toronto’s vice-president of baseball operations. He knows what pieces in the system are talented and which ones have the most potential. Cherington and the Jays nearly were able to complete a Musgrove trade during 2020’s trade deadline, so there’s definitely interest between the two sides.

The Blue Jays and the Pittsburgh Pirates are a perfect match in a Joe Musgrove trade. Not only do the Jays have the need and the pieces to get it done, but the Pirates have the connection to the Jays.