Pittsburgh Pirates: Forecasting the Future of Roansy Contreras

Roansy Contreras was one of the pitchers the Pittsburgh Pirates received in the Jameson Taillon deal. What does his future in Pittsburgh look like?

Pittsburgh Pirates pitching prospect Roansy Contreras was acquired in the trade that sent Jameson Taillon to the New York Yankees. Although Contreras wasn’t the headliner of the deal, he has good promise and could be one of the Pirates better pitchers in a few seasons. So when he does eventually get a regular role with the Bucs, what could his future look like with the team?

Contreras, who is entering his age-21 season, pitched pretty solid in 2019. In 132.1 innings at Single-A, the right-hander had a 3.33 ERA, 3.67 FIP and 1.06 WHIP. His surface numbers are similar to that of fellow Pittsburgh Pirates prospect, flame thrower Tahnaj Thomas. However, Contreras had much different peripherals. He struck out just 21.1% of all the batters he faced, but was quite solid when it came to control with a 6.7% walk rate and 0.68 HR/9.

This all falls right within the right-hander’s typical numbers. His highest single season career strikeout rate is 24%, which came in 63 innings in 2018. He’s consistently put up a very similar HR/9 rate as well year after year. His highest HR/9 came in at 0.71, which also was in 2018. However, his walk rate of 6.7% is a career best mark.

Contreras has been pretty consistent year in year out, only really struggling in 2017, his first professional season. Contreras uses a three pitch mix to get outs. This includes a four-seam fastball, slider and curveball.

According to FanGraphs, they all have the same current and future grade of 50/55. He throws his fastball with a decent bit of spin, averaging at 2400 RPM. Contreras may have averaged 92-95 MPH previously, but he was consistently working in the upper-90s throughout Spring Training. He topped out at 98.2 MPH and bottomed out at 96.1 MPH in his 2.0 innings of work.

His slider is another pitch with plus spin at 2500 RPM. He averaged out in the 84-96 MPH range throughout Spring Training. His curve is another pitch that can be a plus offering that comes in the zone in the upper-70s, giving him three pitches with very distinct speed. Overall, he has solid command and control, with both having 50 grades on FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline.

The question is whether or not he ends up in the rotation or the bullpen. While he was throwing much harder in Spring Training, he only tossed a total of 36 pitches between two games over 10 days apart. If he could consistently keep up the 96-98 MPH fastball through 3-5 innings of work before seeing drop off, then he could be a starter with tremendous ability. He did add some velocity through, as he previously topped out around 96 MPH according to FanGraphs.

This season he’ll likely begin the season at Double-A as a starting pitcher. If he continues to build up his workload and shows he can keep his velocity up over multiple innings of work at a time, then he could easily end up as a starting pitcher with the Pittsburgh Pirates in the next few seasons.

However, he’s going to have fight for a starting spot.

Not only do the Pittsburgh Pirates have Mitch Keller already in the big leagues, but a handful of other top pitching prospects on the rise. Quinn Priester went from unranked prospect to consensus top 50 prospect between 2020 to 2021. Brennan Malone could do the very same thing within the next year or so. Thomas has a very high ceiling and is considered a top 100 prospect by FanGraphs.

Another first-round pick in Carmen Mlodzinski is another arm with a lot of potential. Cody Bolton will be looking to break through in 2021. Don’t forget about Miguel Yajure, who could be one of the Pirates’ better arms before the end of this upcoming season. There’s so many more names as well like Eddy Yean, Wil Crowe, Nick Garcia, Jared Jones and Omar Cruz. Then there’s either Kumar Rocker or Jack Leiter, two of the most highly touted players in the 2021 draft. The Pittsburgh Pirates will almost certainly pick one of the two Vanderbilt aces.

However, even if Contreras ends up in the bullpen, I think he has the potential to be a shutdown late inning arm. With him working less innings, his velocity will see a tick upward, which will likely lead to more strikeouts. Afterall, he struck out 5 in Spring Training after his two innings out of the pen. Currently, he’s seen as the team’s 20th best prospect by MLB Pipeline and is placed 15th by FanGraphs. Overall, he’s a solid prospect with a good future ahead of him in Pittsburgh, whether that be in a bullpen or rotation role.