Pittsburgh Pirates: Was Henry Davis The Right Pick?

The Pittsburgh Pirates selected backstop Henry Davis with the #1 overall selection in the 2021 draft, but was it the right decision?

The Pittsburgh Pirates had the number one overall pick in the 2021 draft and they made a pretty surprising decision with that pick. They selected Louisville catcher Henry Davis with the first pick. But was he the right pick for the Bucs?

Davis is arguably the best hitter in the draft. In 428 plate appearances throughout college ball, the right-handed slugger hit .337/.435/.565 with 21 home runs, 19 doubles, and a .439 wOBA. Davis walked more than he struck out, ending his college career with a 12.1% walk rate and 10.7% strikeout rate. Davis was on pace for 31 home runs and 28 doubles across 650 plate appearances.

FanGraphs sees his hit tool as about average, but his power was the best in the draft. He had the highest projected game power grade at 70, tied with Brady House, but has a higher current game power grade than the infielder. House is also the only prospect with a higher future raw power grade than Davis with the ladder having a 70-grade (both current and projected).

The question remains whether or not he can stick behind the dish. Davis is seen as a 40-grade defender. He does have a strong arm to stick behind the dish, and that may be something important to catcher defense now such as framing won’t matter within the next 5 years. Obviously, we can’t bank on that happening, so it remains to be seen whether or not his final position will be the backstop, a corner infield, or corner outfield position.

That was the main concern with Davis. His defense. If he was projected to stick behind the plate, then Davis may have been a consensus #1 pick. It’s not often you get a catcher with this kind of offensive ceiling. However, a defensive liability behind the dish is more pronounced than one at a position such as first base or left field.

So did the Pittsburgh Pirates make the right choice?

Well, who else could they have selected? As surprising as it was for the Pirates to pick Henry Davis, it was even more surprising that Marcelo Mayer fell to #4. Mayer was seen as the #1 pick by many mock drafts, so him falling as far as he did was shocking.

Mayer, a high school shortstop from Eastlake, California, is seen as a guy with a plus hit tool (60-grade) above-average power (55-grade) who can provide defense at a premium position, that being shortstop (60-grade). Plus he has the arm to make the throws (60-grade). The only thing he lacks is speed, but he isn’t slow and can definitely track things down. Many drew comparisons to Corey Seager given his lefty swing, well above average hitting, and so-so speed.

The Bucs could have also selected Vanderbilt ace, Jack Leiter. Leiter went second overall to the Texas Rangers. Leiter did outstanding throughout college posting a 2.08 ERA, 1.54 FIP, and .844 WHIP in 125.2 innings. Leiter struck out 41% of all the batters he faced but struggled with control from time to time. He had a 1.0 HR/9 rate 10.8% walk rate.

Leiter displayed a strong pitch mix including a four-seam fastball, curveball, slider, and change-up. He also saw an uptick in velocity this year, going from the low-90 MPH range in 2020 to the mid-90 range in 2021. Though there’s more risk associated with college arms than most other positions. Aside from Leiter’s control, which can get spotty at times, he already has over 100 innings on his arm. In a game where inning counts, pitch counts, and batters faced is heavily taken into consideration with workload, and where Tommy John surgery seems like an epidemic, taking a college pitcher presents itself with a lot of risks.

It’s also worth noting that picking a catcher 1/1 has notable risks as well. It’s the most physcially demaning position on the diamond. Most catchers anymore only catch between 110 and 120 games a year. Since 2010, there have only been six instances where a catcher has played in at least 150 games. In many of those cases, said catcher also saw a decent bit of time at first base such as Carlos Santana in 2011 and 2013, Buster Posey in 2015, and Yasmani Grandal in 2019.

So to answer the question as to whether or not Davis was the right choice to take with the #1 overall pick, I think it is a fine choice. In my opinion, he was the best hitter available. If he can show any semblance of defense behind the plate, that’s just icing on the cake.

Plus, he doesn’t have to be regulated to just catcher. Davis could be be more of a catcher/first baseman to help mitigate any defensive issuees he may have. He could end up catching 80 or so games a year while seeing time at first base and designated hitter. After all, many catchers do play a decent amount of first base.

However, I think it comes down to what you would rather have seen the Pittsburgh Pirates take. Is the best bat more valuable than the most well-rounded player? While Davis may provide more offensive potential, Mayer still provides well an above-average offensive ceiling while being a plus defender with good enough speed to stick at a premium position.