3 Pirates breakout candidates that will be key to their 2025 success

The Pittsburgh Pirates are hoping to break out of the 76-win rut they’ve stuck been in. With Paul Skenes and Jared Jones in play for a full season, along with a (hopefully) healthy campaign forcenter fielder Oneil Cruz, they have a good chance.

Fueled by those stars, many hoped they could become at least a .500 team in 2024. That didn’t come to be, however. The Pirates may have a better team now compared to a year ago, but still, they could benefit a whole lot if these three players break out in 2025.

Each showed potential to be a quality contributor in 2024 and is trending in the right direction. Now, it's time for them to take the next steps, and a firm, unassailable breakout from each of these players in 2025 could be paramount to the Pirates’ success in 2025.

3 Pirates breakout candidates who could redefine 2025 season

3. Nick Gonzales

Nick Gonzales was one of the first top prospects the Pirates acquired at the start of their rebuild, selecting him seventh overall in the 2020 MLB Draft. Gonzales ascended throughout their minor league system and reached the big leagues in 2023. It was a small sample size of only 128 plate appearances, but Gonzales put up a paltry .616 OPS, .268 wOBA, and 63 wRC+. He struck out at a 28.1% rate with a meager 4.7% walk rate.

Thankfully, Gonzales looked a whole lot better in 2024. He turned in a .270/.311/.398 triple-slash, .307 wOBA, and 94 wRC+. Gonzales still only walked in 4.7% of his 387 plate appearances, but he significantly cut down on his swing and miss. His K% and whiff rate went from 28.1% and 32.4% in ‘23 to just 19.1% and 24.9% in ‘24. However, he still only hit seven homers with a .128 isolated slugging percentage.

Gonzales also was out of action in late July/most of August, which followed right after his worst month of the season, when he had a .533 OPS in July.

There are still numbers under the hood that suggest Gonzales can not only be a solid hitter in 2025, but might take steps forward as well. He was in the 50th percentile or greater in xwOBA (.317, 50th percentile), xSLG% (.407, 54th percentile), and xBA (.270, 84th percentile) last season. His 7.9% barrel percentage was also slightly above average, sitting in the 51st percentile. The only noteworthy batted ball statistic in which he was below average was exit velocity at 87.9 MPH, but that still isn’t far off from the league average mark of 88.5 MPH.

Baseball Savant, which gives player comparisons based on batted ball profile, compares Gonzales fairly positively. Of the five players they compare Gonzales to in 2024, three are MLB regulars, including Josh Naylor, Trea Turner, and Jonah Heim (all in 2024). The other two are 2023 Reese McGuire and Oswald Peraza, neither of which played a full season in ‘23. 

Gonzales doesn’t have to be a Silver Slugger to be valuable - he had +2 outs above average at second base - but there’s definitely potential improvement on the horizon for Gonzales. Him breaking out would be a huge thing for the Pirates’ lineup. Even if he can put up a .730-.750 OPS and 100-110 wRC+, he would be a big help for the offense.