3 players on 40-man roster the Pirates should consider trading (for the right price)

Bailey Falter

Pirates fans were rightfully frustrated that the team broke camp last year with Bailey Falter in the starting rotation. After an unimpressive showing in the second half of the year with the Bucs in 2023, as well as struggling in spring training, many were hoping a young arm like Quinn Priester or Luis Ortiz would be given a shot. Fans were even more outraged when Falter allowed six earned runs in four innings during his first start of the year.

But after that, Falter settled down and remained in the Pirates’ rotation for the entire season. Over his next 138.1 innings pitched, the southpaw had a 4.16 ERA, 4.11 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP. Falter owned an above-average 0.98 HR/9 and a strong 7.4% walk rate throughout this stretch, but he did not strike out many batters and had a K% of just 16.7%.

Falter settled in as a solid middle/back of the rotation arm, but a look under the hood shows some concerning numbers. Opponents hit the ball hard off of Falter with a 90.3 MPH exit velocity and 8.8% barrel rate. Falter’s ERA estimators also did not paint a pretty picture. He had a 4.63 xFIP and 4.84 SIERA. 

However, Falter does have some attributes that might help him play above those numbers. According to Baseball Savant, he is in the 98th percentile of release point extension at 7.3 feet. His four-seam fastball may only register 91.8 MPH on the radar gun, but because of how far Falter releases the ball in front of him, it looks more like a 93-94 MPH pitch. Falter’s fastball also has good backspin and has a 97% active spin rate. That means 97% of his fastball’s spin contributes to movement. That has given his four-seamer only 14.7 inches of drop. Falter also throws from a high, 56-degree arm angle, giving his stuff another level of deception.

Now, obviously, teams understand numbers like these better than anyone, but whether it merits a deeper dive or not, Falter clearly possesses a lot of things teams value. He is only going to be in his age-28 season next year, is still an entire season away from arbitration, and has shown he can at least be a solid back-of-the-rotation arm. Falter may not be the flashiest pitcher on the trade market if the Pirates are willing to move him, but he’s on the younger side, has four years of control remaining, and has qualities that could help him play above his expectations. 

Braxton Ashcraft

The one prospect on this list is Braxton Ashcraft. The Pirates originally drafted Ashcraft in the second round of the 2018 draft. It’s been a bumpy ride to get where he is now, as he barely pitched from 2020 to 2022, suffering multiple injuries. Ashcraft, like many young starters, had to undergo Tommy John surgery, and also lost the COVID-19 2020 season entirely.

Ashcraft rebuilt a lot of his value in 2023, but got even better in 2024. He pitched 73 innings this year, working to a 2.84 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and 1.07 WHIP. The righty struck out just over a quarter of his opponents, with a 25.8% K%, and limited home runs well. Ashcraft had just an 0.74 HR/9 rate while holding opponents to an 87.9 MPH exit velocity and 5.1% barrel rate. His biggest strength was limiting walks, and he had just a 4% BB%. That led to the 15th-best walk rate and the 13th-best K:BB ratio (6.42) among all minor-league pitchers who started at least a dozen games.

Ashcraft only pitched 73 innings, but managed to go six or more innings on five different occasions. The last time Ashcraft went six frames prior to this season was in 2019. In 2023, he never reached even 4.1 innings pitched because of the multiple injuries that kept him out for so long.

Of course, the one lingering concern is that he missed most of the second half due to injuries once again in 2024.

Ashcraft has the qualities to be a starting pitcher in the big leagues. He went deeper into games in the upper levels of the minor leagues this season. He has four pitches, three of which project as above average or better. His mid-90s four-seamer and his upper-80s slider are his best offerings, featuring plus potential. The right-hander’s curveball has also shown some promising traits, and Baseball America projects it to be above average. He’ll mix in a cutter and a changeup occasionally, but his most notable strength is his overall control rather than the diversity of his portfolio.

Given that his injury concerns may raise some red flags, as well as some reliever risk, this is likely the highest Ashcraft’s value is going to be as a prospect. The Pirates should capitalize now. It’s not as if he’s their only top prospect in the upper levels of the minor leagues. Dealing Ashcraft only takes out one of multiple starting pitching options between Double-A and Triple-A.