3 questionable offseason splurges Ben Cherington can't afford to make

The Pittsburgh Pirates are going to see $30-$40 million infused into their 2026 budget, making them actual players in free agency for the first time in what feels like a lifetime. While that's a decent chunk of change, it doesn't mean that Ben Cherington can simply go wild.

For one thing, the future could get very expensive, with Paul Skenes' record-setting pre-arbitration bonus setting the stage for some massive arbitration paydays beginning in 2027.

Secondly, this is Bob Nutting we're talking about, so the rug could get pulled out from under us at any time. Even with this new influx of cash, the Pirates will still be one of the bottom spenders in the league, so with so many needs, it's still important to get some bang for their buck.

Pittsburgh has started getting connected to several free agents, driving excitement among the long-suffering fanbase, but these three players would be questionable investments that Ben Cherington must avoid.

3 players Ben Cherington and the Pirates need to avoid during the club's spending spree

1B/OF/DH Ryan O'Hearn

Ryan O'Hearn has been a popular free-agent candidate connected to Pittsburgh for some time now. On the surface, it makes sense. O'Hearn is a mid-tier option who would only command a two- or three-year deal at moderate money, leaving the Pirates room to spend elsewhere.

Furthermore, following his departure from the Kansas City Royals, he's undergone something of a rebirth, becoming a roughly .800 OPS hitter with solid walk and strikeout rates over the past three seasons.

The issue with O'Hearn is the noise in the underlying metrics. His 94th percentile hard-hit rate and 89th percentile exit velocity in 2023 gave way to a 49th percentile hard-hit rate and 59th percentile average exit velocity in 2024, and finally a 46th percentile hard-hit rate and 42nd percentile average exit velocity in 2025.

In addition to the questions that those drop-offs raise, O'Hearn is nominally an outfielder, but is best with the glove at first base. Is displacing Spencer Horwitz really the best course of action? Does O'Hearn, who has never hit more than 17 homers in a single season, truly give you enough thump to work as a full-time DH? These are questions someone will find the answer to, but that someone shouldn't be the Pirates.

Infielder/DH Jorge Polanco

This time last year, Jorge Polanco sat out on the free agent market until February, following a dismal 2024 season that saw him manage just 0.3 fWAR thanks to a .651 OPS and brutal defense at second base. In 2025, the 32-year-old's bat came back to life with 26 homers and a .265/.326/.495 line while being mostly kept off the field as the Seattle Mariners' primary DH.

It was a welcome power surge for the switch-hitting veteran who hadn't topped 16 homers in a single season since his 33-dinger campaign back in 2021. Those represent just some of the inconsistencies that make Polanco a questionable bet.

Polanco's seen some serious fluctuations over the years with both his contact rates and power output, putting both together in his best years, relying on one over the other in his average years, and losing both entirely in his worst years. That fluctuation carries through to things like his strikeout rate, which went from 29.2% in 2024 all the way down to 15.6% this year.

Many experts have predicted that Polanco will end up in Pittsburgh, but with salary predictions approaching $15 million annually, the Pirates should stay away. That's an awful lot to pay for a player with an inconsistent bat and negative defensive value who is also entering his mid-30s.

Outfielder Harrison Bader

In a weak center field market, Harrison Bader is sure to get a lot of attention coming off a career year that saw him hit .277/.347/.449 with a career-best 17 homers. Bader is an above-average defender at all three outfield positions.

There are two red flags with Bader, however. One is obvious, while the other is hidden beneath the surface. The easy concern is durability. Despite playing 146 games this year and 143 games last year, Bader has a long injury history and has averaged just 120 games per season since 2018 (excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season).

The other concern is that his 2025 campaign was a mirage. Bader owns a career wRC+ of 96, so 2025's 122 mark was a huge leap forward. It was a leap based on an unsustainable .359 BABIP, which belies his 36th percentile hard-hit rate and 12th percentile average exit velocity. In 2024, he recorded an 85 wRC+, which was supported by very similar hard-hit and exit velo stats in the 24th percentile and 17th percentile, respectively.

Simply put, someone will overpay him, believing he can replicate that outburst, but he won't. The Pirates already have enough below-average bats in their lineup; they do not need another.