A bold Pirates-Orioles mock trade proposal that could solve both teams' issues

The Pittsburgh Pirates do not have a good answer at first base right now. Billy Cook would likely be their best option if the season was to start tomorrow, but he doesn't fit the typical profile. The Pirates have struggled for decades to find a decent first baseman for more than one season.

While Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz will have left and center field on lock for quite some time, right field still remains a question as well. They also have very little young outfield depth in the minor leagues. The Pirates’ best outfield prospect is Lonnie White Jr., per Baseball America and MLB Pipeline (not counting Konnor Griffin since he was drafted as a shortstop). That won't cut it.

With the amount of pitching the Pirates have to dangle in trade talks, they should be able to fill both holes in due time. Plenty of teams need young arms, and that’s something the Pirates have in droves. One team that could use a young arm or two is the Baltimore Orioles. Last season, they had four pitchers start at least 20 games. Two had an ERA+ above 100, and one of those workhorses was Corbin Burnes, who is a free agent. The other was 34-year-old Albert Suarez. Zach Eflin also pitched well after the O’s acquired him at the trade deadline, but they have just five pitching prospects among their top 15 on MLB Pipeline. The future is, sadly, not bright for Baltimore in that department.

These two teams make good trade partners on paper, so let’s work out a bold mock trade that would benefit both squads, giving the Pirates a first baseman and young outfielder and the Orioles some young pitching.

The Pirates’ return in mock trade with Orioles

The Pirates would be receiving two players in this bold mock trade. The first is first baseman Ryan Mountcastle. Mountcastle is coming off a solid season with the bat, slashing .271/.308/.425 with a .316 wOBA and 108 wRC+. He hit 13 home runs with a .154 isolated slugging percentage across 507 plate appearances and struck out at a 22.5% rate. On the flip side, his 5.3% walk rate was a career-low and represented a huge drop from 7.9% last year.

But Mountcastle can do a lot more than that. He was in the 70th percentile or better of all three expected statistics on Baseball Savant. That includes a .272 xBA, .445 xSLG%, and .333 xwOBA. Mountcastle had no trouble making good contact, sporting a 90.2 MPH exit velo and 8.8% barrel rate. Both were above-average marks. The only park where Mountcastle would have hit fewer than 13 home runs last season happened to be his home ballpark. The walls are moving back in left field now, but it may be too late for Mountcastle.

Mountcastle also does not cost a team on the defensive side of the ball. He had +8 defensive runs saved and +2 outs above average. He was also a Gold Glove finalist in the American League this season. Mountcastle is under control through the 2026 season. MLB Trade Rumors also named him the 30th-best trade candidate this offseason. 

The Orioles could definitley part with Mountcastle, given their vast amount of young infield depth. Their number one top prospect, Coby Mayo, is considered to have Rookie of the Year potential. He has played a handful of games at both third base and first base, but finding playing time at the hot corner could be difficult for Mayo, given that all of Jordan Westburg, Ramon Urías, and Gunnar Henderson can man the position. Outfield prospect Heston Kjerstad is also an option at first base. They also brought Ryan O'Hearn back into the fold by picking up his team option.

The other player heading the Pirates' way in this plan is outfield prospect Dylan Beavers. The O’s drafted Beavers with the 33rd overall pick in the 2022 draft. Beavers spent most of his season at Double-A, where he put up some decent numbers, including a .241/.343/.413 triple-slash, .347 wOBA, and 118 wRC+ across 509 plate appearances. Beavers walked at a high 13.2% rate with a respectable 22.1% K%. He also hit for some pop, notching 15 home runs and a .172 isolated slugging percentage. Beavers was a threat to swipe bases as well, with 31 steals in 34 attempts. Beavers was promoted to Triple-A at the end of the season but struggled, albeit in a sample size that was too small to draw any definitive conclusions.

Defensively, Beavers projects as an average glove up the middle, but his arm is well above-average, and he can play in any outfield spot. He projects as a better defender in an outfield corner. Beavers could be a power/speed threat, as he projects as above-average in both tools. Despite his large 6’4”, 206-pound frame, Beavers doesn’t struggle with swinging and missing nearly as much as some prospects his size. 

While Beavers is one of Baltimore's top 10 prospects in what is considered one of the best farm systems in baseball (ranked sixth by MLB Pipeline and seventh by Baseball America), the O's have a ton of young outfielders. Colton Cowser just finished the year as one of the American League Rookie of the Year finalists, and Heston Kjerstad has shown a ton of promise in the big leagues. The O’s still have Cedric Mullins under contract for another year, and two of their top five prospects on MLB Pipeline are outfielders. In fact, both of their last two first-round picks are pedigreed outfielders: Enrique Bradfield and Vance Honeycutt.

The Orioles’ return in mock trade with Pirates

The Pirates would be sending back a notable headliner in this mock deal: right-hander Luis Ortiz. Ortiz is coming off a breakout campaign where he put up a 3.32 ERA, 4.25 FIP, and 1.11 WHIP across 135.2 innings. Ortiz only struck out 19.2% of his opponents, but more importantly, he saw a huge reduction in walk rate, which dipped from 12% in ‘23 to just 7.6% in '24. Ortiz’s 1.06 HR/9 rate was also roughly league average.

Ortiz’s ERA estimators didn’t love his work on the mound. He had a 4.59 xFIP and 4.38 SIERA. He also only had an 8.8% barrel rate and 89 MPH exit velocity, but he did balance those regressions with a huge uptick in pitch quality. Stuff+ put his offerings at a 108 (similar scale to OPS+ or wRC+, where 100 is average). Last year, Stuff+ had him at 99. Location+ also put him in a bright light at 100, which represented a significant improvement over his 2023 mark of 95. Ortiz made several changes regarding his pitch selection, arm angle, and pitch attributes.

Ortiz is still two years away from arbitration. He won’t have to go through the process until the 2026-2027 offseason, at the earliest. The right-hander is only entering his age-26 season and was a former top-100 prospect heading into the 2023 campaign. He’s trending in the right direction as well. 

The Pirates have more than enough pitching to part with Ortiz. If they trade Ortiz, that still leaves Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller as their 1-through-3, with Bailey Falter, Johan Oviedo, Mike Burrows, and Braxton Ashcraft on the 40-man roster to fill in the rest of the rotation. That’s not even mentioning that Bubba Chandler could start the year in the Pirates’ Opening Day rotation, or Thomas Harrington, who could receive a call-up during the first half of the season.

Both sides have the depth to make this work. Now, we just have to wait and see if they can find a match.