A way-too-early prediction for the Pittsburgh Pirates’ 2026 rotation

If the Pittsburgh Pirates have any chance at being good next year, it’s going to be because of their pitching depth. They have plenty of options when it comes to how they’ll fill out their rotation and bullpen. While a lot can happen between now and 2026 Opening Day, let’s take a look at what the Pirates’ rotation could look like come next April.

The Pirates have at least two locks: Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller. Skenes is the NL frontrunner for Cy Young. There’s nothing much else to say, other than he’s outright dominant and isn’t going anywhere. Keller is also a very safe bet to be in the Pirates’ rotation next year. Even with his recent struggles, he has been a slightly above league-average starter since his 2022 breakout season, with a 101 ERA+ and sub-4.00 FIP. He is also guaranteed to have 30-32 starts with about 180 IP per season. There were some trade rumors surrounding Keller at this year’s trade deadline, but nothing came to fruition. 

Another young pitcher who has an inside track to a rotation spot is Bubba Chandler. Chandler is one of the best prospects in baseball right now. He had a 4.05 ERA with a 27.4% strikeout rate, 0.72 HR/9, and 12% walk rate at Triple-A Indianapolis this season. While he has had some struggles getting through four innings as of recently, the Pirates were confident enough in him to give him a call to the Major Leagues, but in a multi-inning reliever role rather than in the rotation.

Despite the unconventional parameters, Chandler couldn’t have asked for a better MLB debut. He tossed four innings, allowing just two hits, no walks, and striking out three batters. While he is serving as a long reliever right now, the Pirates still view him as a rotation option. Unless something catastrophic happens next year (knock on wood), Chandler is expected to be in the Pirates’ rotation to start next year.

Projecting the Pirates' 2026 rotation on Opening Day

The final two rotation spots will likely come down to three candidates. The first option is Mike Burrows. Burrows has made 15 starts and has 76.2 innings pitched on the season. He is putting up respectable numbers, including a 4.23 ERA, 4.37 FIP, and 1.24 WHIP. He is getting batters to swing and miss at an above-average rate, with a 26.4% whiff rate and 24.2% strikeout percentage. His 8.7% walk rate isn’t outstanding, but it isn't poor, either. The right-hander has struggled with the long ball this season, with a 1.41 HR/9 and 9.9% barrel rate, though a quarter of the home runs he allowed all came in one start.

Then there’s Braxton Ashcraft. Ashcraft came into the season as one of the Pirates’ top pitching prospects. When the Pirates initially called him up in late May, he was primarily used out of the bullpen, making just one three-inning start in 17 games. He was effective in a long reliever role, but was moved to the starting rotation in early August. While Ashcraft has only pitched 13.1 innings over three starts this month, he has been outright dominant. He has allowed just a single earned run, struck out 15 batters, and let just two opponents reach via free pass. What’s even more impressive is that he has maintained his velocity, sitting 97.2 MPH (compared to 96.9 MPH through his first 18 games) while carrying an above-average 106 Stuff+ mark. 

Last, but certainly not least, is Johan Oviedo. Oviedo had a solid year in 2023, working to the tune of a 4.31 ERA, 4.49 FIP, and 1.37 WHIP while making 32 starts and pitching 177.2 innings. He looked like a reliable middle-of-the-rotation arm, but missed all of 2023 and a good portion of 2024. While Oviedo has recently returned to the Major Leagues, his last two outings have been very promising. He has tossed a combined nine innings of work, allowing just two earned runs, a pair of walks, and striking out 11 batters. On top of that, his stuff looks better than ever.

The Pirates will need all three of Burrows, Ashcraft, and Oviedo, as all three have questionable durability. This is the first season Burrows has pitched 100 innings since getting drafted in 2018. Ashcraft has never reached 100 innings of work. Oviedo missed so much time in recent years due to both Tommy John surgery and an oblique injury. The Pirates aren’t going to ask all three to start 25-30 games or pitch 150-180 innings. Instead, they should open the year with two of the three in the rotation. They can utilize piggyback starts from time to time, or run out a six-man rotation during stretches when they have few off days. 

The Pirates have plenty more options for the rotation. Thomas Harrington could rebound, and they’ll need to add Hunter Barco to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Jared Jones should also return sometime next year after undergoing an internal brace procedure, which takes less time to recover from than Tommy John surgery. But, as of right now, the Pirates should enter 2026 with a rotation anchored by Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Bubba Chandler, with Johan Oviedo, Mike Burrows, and Braxton Ashcraft waiting behind them.