An optimistic take on the Pirates' Tommy Pham signing

The Pittsburgh Pirates recently signed Tommy Pham to a one-year contract. For obvious (and understandable) reasons, it hasn’t resonated well with fans, and that’s putting it lightly. Pham put up a mediocre .248/.305/.368 line with a 91 wRC+ in 2024. He hit just nine home runs in 478 plate appearances, with a slightly below-average 7.3% walk rate. There is a ton of negativity surrounding the signing, and reasonably so, but is there an optimistic case to be made on the Pirates adding Tommy Pham to the roster?

Even though Pham is coming off a poor season, he was still above average in expected wOBA at .319. The difference between his xwOBA and wOBA was 22 points, which was the 25th-highest difference in the league among batters with at least 400 plate appearances. His xwOBA was also in the 52nd percentile of all batters.

Another expected stat in which he was above average was slugging percentage (xSLG%) at .407, which came in at the 54th percentile. There was a 39-point difference between reality and expectations here, which was the 21st-largest gap between SLG% and xSLG% in all of baseball. Finally, his .263 expected batting average represents another hidden positive. This was by far his best mark, clocking in at the 76th percentile league-wide.

The best possible outlook on Tommy Pham joining Pirates

Pham still hits the ball hard and makes decent contact. Last year, he had a 90.4 MPH exit velocity with a 7.2% barrel rate. The league average in both stats was 88.5 MPH and 7%, respectively. The veteran outfielder is still one of the most disciplined hitters in baseball. His 18.7% chase rate was the eighth-best among batters with at least 400 plate appearances. He was less than .5% behind Juan Soto at 18.3%.

Pham’s defense was poor, but most of his struggles with the glove were in center field. Pham had -7 defensive runs saved and -1 out above average in center. Between left and right field, Pham had -3 DRS and -2 OAA. Pham did grade out as an above-average left field defender. Pham ran good routes, but got below-average jumps on balls hit in his direction.

This is possibly the most optimistic takeaway from the Pirates signing Tommy Pham, but it is still understandable that many will find this positive outlook underwhelming. Pham's age and 2024 performance weren't very inspiring, even with good numbers under the hood. All fans can do now is hope that Pham can play up to these hidden numbers. The Pirates need someone in right field who can produce something solid.