Brewers' playoff turn for the worse has spiked Pirates' small-market hope

The Milwaukee Brewers, the so-called blueprint for small-market success in MLB, appeared to be a lock to win the NLDS against the Chicago Cubs – until, suddenly, they didn't. An epic collapse in Games 3 and 4 have forced a deciding Game 5 on Saturday, placing Milwaukee on the brink of elimination at the hands of their deep-pocketed National League Central division rivals.

But this stunning collapse has – paradoxically – given Pittsburgh Pirates a rare burst of small-market hope.

It’s not because Pirates fans relish Milwaukee’s pain (well, maybe a little). It’s because the Brewers’ downfall perfectly illustrates both the ceiling and the sustainability of what a well-run small-market team can accomplish – and where the Pirates could go if they ever actually executed their plan correctly.

The Brewers have proven that it's possible to build a contender without a huge payroll. Even after trading away Corbin Burnes and losing Brandon Woodruff for most of the year, Milwaukee still won the NL Central in 2025 with one of baseball’s lowest payrolls – and developed a new generation of impact players (Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell, etc.) in the process.

Milwaukee's model of elite defense, pitching depth, and internal development shows that small-market efficiency can win divisions. To Pirates fans, that’s encouraging: it proves you don’t need $200 million to build a winner – just organizational competence and direction.

So, even if the Brewers fizzle in October, their mere presence there gives fans in Pittsburgh a glimpse of what’s possible if Ben Cherington ever converts his “process” into actual results.

But Milwaukee crumbling in Games 3 and 4 at the hands of the Cubs wasn’t about market size. It was about thin margins and roster flaws – namely, inconsistent hitting, bullpen fatigue and limited star power. The Brewers looked like a team that had maxed out its formula and suddenly fallen back to earth.

That’s heartening to Pirates fans because it suggests that the “bar” for contention in the NL Central isn’t sky-high. If the division’s smartest small-market operation can unravel that quickly, a better-built Pirates roster could theoretically replace them atop the standings in the not-too-distant future.

The Brewers’ struggle over the last two games reinforces that even the best small-market models have fragile postseason fates. One bad inning or a few stranded runners can erase an entire year of progress. That unpredictability offers some hope for Pittsburgh because it means that once you get in, anything can happen. If a club like the Brewers can win 97 games and still flame out, a team like the Pirates could just as easily sneak in and make a run – especially with frontline pitching.

Pirates fans have more ammunition to call for change as Brewers struggle in NLDS

Milwaukee has been the NL Central’s most stable operation for years, with a smart front office, a consistent identity and efficient payroll management. But their 2025 failure shows that stability isn't enough; teams need game-changing stars and offensive depth to survive October.

If the Brewers’ model hits its ceiling without spending, the Pirates can’t just copy it – they need to improve it. It reframes the conversation from “just be like Milwaukee” to “be better than Milwaukee – and spend at the right time.”

The Cubs’ resurgence, while frustrating, also resets the divisional hierarchy. The Cardinals remain inconsistent. The Reds are volatile. And now the Brewers’ aura of invincibility is gone. If the Pirates ever capitalize on their young pitching core and supplement it with a real offense, they could easily slide into Milwaukee’s old role as the scrappy, low-payroll contender that punches above its weight.

The Brewers’ collapse is a blueprint and a warning wrapped in one. It shows the Pirates that a small-market team can win – but that the difference between a brief playoff run and a sustained contender lies in execution, timing and investment.

The small-market dream isn’t dead in Pittsburgh. It just needs a front office willing to learn from someone else’s mistakes.