Can these 3 Pirates players sustain success after 2024 breakout seasons?

Bailey Falter

Like Dennis Santana, Bailey Falter didn’t get off on the right foot with the Pirates. He had an inconsistent showing with the Bucs in the second half of the 2023 season, then a poor spring training in 2024. A horrible first game of the season left many wondering how many starts it would be until the Pirates opted to move on from Falter. Somehow, though, the southpaw suddenly turned things around. 

Falter then pitched to a respectable 4.16 ERA, 4.11 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP the rest of the way, which amounted to 138.1 innings of work. The lefty did not get many strikeouts, with just a 16.7% K%, but he was above average at limiting walks, clocking in with a 7.4% BB%. Falter also had a sub-1.00 HR/9 rate, coming in at 0.98. Overall, Falter was about a league-average arm while averaging over five innings a start.

Falter pitched well, but there were certainly some red flags. Despite pitching to league-average numbers over his final 27 starts of the year, Falter had a 4.84 SIERA and 4.63 xFIP. Falter is more of a fly ball pitcher, as he put up a 41.7% fly ball rate, and he was prone to hard contact, inducing an unimpressive 90.3 MPH exit velocity and 8.8% barrel rate. There was a decent gap between Falter’s wOBA (.315) and xwOBA (.333) as well. Although he located his offerings well, Stuff+ only pinned Falter at a below-average 91. 

These numbers likely do not inspire much confidence, so is there any way Falter can play above them once again? The lefty has some things working for him. Despite only averaging out at 91.8 MPH on the gun with his four-seam fastball, the velocity plays up because Falter was in the 98th percentile of extension release point. Baseball Savant describes this as “how far off the mound, in feet, a pitcher releases the pitch.” His perceived fastball velocity made his four-seamer look closer to a 93.7 MPH pitch.

Falter’s high arm angle also helps his stuff play up. His arm angle averaged out at 56 degrees, the seventh-highest among lefty pitchers in 2024. With above-average vertical break on his four-seamer at 14.7 inches, Falter’s release point makes his ordinary stuff play at another level. We shall see if his deceptive release point is enough for him to play above his poor expected numbers. Falter arguably has the worst chance of repeating his 2024 success between him, Santana, and Bart.