Crafting comparable Pirates trade packages to Josh Naylor, Nathaniel Lowe returns

At the MLB Winter Meetings, the Pittsburgh Pirates decided to acquire Spencer Horwitz to be their first baseman for the price of a young controllable arm in Luis Ortiz and two other left-handed pitching prospects. Some fans have called this an overpay, as Horwitz struggles against left-handed pitching, but his value comes from the amount of years left on his pre-arbitration contract, as well as his impressive power.

In the last few days, other, more established first baseman have been dealt, and the deals have looked quite different. Josh Naylor was sent to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Slade Cecconi and their Competitive Balance Round B draft pick. Robert Murray stated on the Baseball Insiders Podcast that the Pirates showed interest in Naylor, but obviously they did not pursue him.

Another move that affected the market was Nathaniel Lowe getting dealt to the Nationals for Robert Garcia. The Pirates were not reportedly involved in Lowe, but he made sense for them as well at the position. Both Naylor and Lowe come with a hit to the payroll. Naylor is a free agent after the 2025 season, and Lowe hits free agency after the 2026 season. Both are expected to get raises in free agency, as well as the arbitration process, which would make it hard for the Pirates to bring either player back if they'd been acquired.

That is why the Pirates chose Horwitz instead, but the trades were very different. Horwitz, who will not be a free agent until after the 2030 season, cost a much bigger package than these two established veterans. Of course, no trade occurs in a vacuum, and no one knows for sure which Pirates pitchers the Rangers and Guardians would've valued similarly. Still, it's worth examining these packages through a potential Pirates lens.

The Pirates may have lost more with trades for Josh Naylor or Nathaniel Lowe.

A player on the Pirates that is very similar to Cecconi is Mike Burrows, the team's 15th-ranked prospect. In 2023, Cecconi was ranked 12th in Arizona's system. Both offer the same four pitches: a fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball. Cecconi has gotten more of an opportunity in MLB, as Burrows underwent Tommy John surgery, delaying his debut until 2024.

Burrows, in Triple-A last season, posted an earned run average (ERA) of 4.06 with a WHIP of 1.41, striking out 45 hitters. Cecconi, with Arizona's big-league club, delivered an ERA of 6.66, a WHIP of 1.42, and 64 strikeouts. Both have had similar production recently, but possess significant potential.

The Pirates' comparable player to Garcia in the Lowe deal would be Kyle Nicolas, a right-handed reliever who emerged as a solid arm in the Pirates bullpen. Garcia has outstanding stuff, just like Nicolas, which could make both pitchers closers one day. One difference, though, is Garcia is a bit more advanced than Nicolas, as his control is much more efficient.

With Washington in 2024, Garcia generated an ERA of 4.22 with a WHIP of 1.19 and struck out 75 batters. In Pittsburgh last season, Nicolas tossed an ERA of 3.95 with a WHIP of 1.50 and struck out 55 opponents. His issue was walking hitters at a 12.8% clip, but his potential is highly valued, and would have likely been what the Rangers targeted for Lowe.

Every possibility is always interesting to look at. If the Pirates lost Nicolas for two years of Lowe, fans may have been upset. He could become the next closer of the Pirates with his arsenal. Would surrendering him for just two years of Lowe, in this current in-between window, have been worth it? Same goes for the Naylor deal with Burrows. Ortiz has shown strong signs of a possible regression, so maybe the Pirates did the right thing with their trade to fill first base. Only time will tell.