Esmerlyn Valdez was certainly underestimated when he first came up, but now the Pittsburgh Pirates phenom is getting his due. Valdez was just named National League Rookie of the Month for July, and after a .250/.355/.587 line and eight homers, it's hard to argue with the decision.
The 22-year-old was known for his power, and while we might not have thought that it would be this prodigious this early, it's not a surprise that he's delivering. But if you think that is his best skill, you'd be mistaken.
What's been most impressive about Valdez thus far is what allows him to fully unlock that power, and that's his plate discipline. Valdez simply doesn't chase pitches out of the zone. His 22.3% chase rate would be an upper-echelon performance if he had enough plate appearances to qualify.
The most impressive and encouraging thing about Esmerlyn Valdez remains his command of the strike zone. Do not care what his batting average is over the past 10 days or whatever. Walks do not slump. He will start getting pitches again. He will hit them.
— Adam Gretz (@AGretz) August 4, 2026
That trait obviously manifests itself in his stellar 15.3% walk rate, but it helps in another way, too. Valdez has a ridiculous 24.1% barrel rate, which allows him to maximize his immense power, but is truly enabled because by not chasing out of the zone, he avoids making weak contact off of suboptimal parts of the bat.
The next thing that we've learned about Valdez during this tear has been the biggest surprise. "The Magician" isn't just some lumbering slugger; he's actually got some defensive chops, too. In 315 1/3 innings in right field, he's already posted two outs above average and one defensive runs saved.
Esmerlyn Valdez has been describe by Don Kelly as a “pleasant surprise” in the outfield this year.
— Hannah Mears (@mearshannah_) August 4, 2026
Tony Beasley told me he's been encouraging Valdez to play more aggressively and with greater urgency after noticing early on that he was playing it safe, afraid to make mistakes.… https://t.co/MgmcMOfu69
Part of the reason for that is that the six-foot-two, 234-pound outfielder runs better than you'd expect based on his frame. Valdez has an average sprint speed of 28 feet per second, which is a 67th percentile mark and made more impressive given his size. He's also got a stronger-than-average arm that ranks in the 71st percentile.
Esmerlyn has been a pleasant surprise in unexpected ways for the Pirates, but there's still work to do
Valdez has been in a bit of a slump of late, and it's something to monitor. Since July 22, he's batting just .132 with a .263 slugging percentage. Part of that might be due to the injury scare he suffered after being hit on the left wrist by a pitch. The start of the slump predated the injury, but there's no doubt that the pain contributed to his scuffles.
However, during this brief downturn, one thing has remained constant. Valdez still controls the strike zone and draws his walks. Despite hitting .132 during the span, he's getting on base at a .370 clip thanks to a 25.9% walk rate. That ability to draw the free pass will always help mitigate the effects of a slump.
With that said, there's still one area where Valdez really needs to improve. Valdez whiffs at an uncomfortably high 40%. The good and bad news about that stat is the fact that he's not offering at pitches outside of the zone. That means those whiffs are coming on pitches he theoretically could hit.
Valdez's zone contact rate is 71.6%. An elite contact hitter like three-time batting champ Luis Arraez is making contact within the zone at a 94.2% rate. Arraez doesn't bring anywhere near the thunder that Valdez does, though, and getting to that level isn't necessary.
But if Valdez could edge his zone contact up over the 80% threshold, he'll add another dimension to his game and help prevent these slumps from becoming long, frequent events. Even better if he can get close to an 85% rate, but we won't be greedy.
In doing that, he'll become a truly frightening player and get on a superstar-level trajectory. If that comes to pass, he'll far exceed the Pirates' wildest dreams.
