Esmerlyn Valdez must make one adjustment to prove Pirates breakout is real

Esmerlyn Valdez has already proven that his power belongs in the major leagues. Now comes the harder part: proving pitchers won’t eventually find a way to neutralize it.

The 22-year-old Pittsburgh Pirates rookie has been one of baseball’s most explosive hitters since shaking off an ugly start to his big-league career. Valdez hit just .111 over his first 10 games, but he has responded by batting .370 with 11 home runs and a 1.370 OPS over his next 22.

That kind of production explains why the Pirates have been willing to live with one glaring flaw in his offensive profile.

Valdez simply needs to make more contact. His 65.4% contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone is well below the 82.6% league average. For all of the damage Valdez has inflicted when he connects, major-league pitchers will continue testing whether he can consistently put hittable pitches in play.

None of this mean's Valdez's breakout is destined to collapse. In fact, some of his other underlying numbers provide plenty of reason to believe his approach is far more advanced than a typical power-hitting rookie.

Valdez is walking 13.3% of the time while chasing pitches outside the strike zone at only a 23.6% rate. That combination matters. He isn’t simply flailing away and hoping to run into fastballs. He is identifying balls and strikes, controlling the zone and waiting for pitches he can drive.

When he gets them, few hitters have done more damage.

Esmerlyn Valdez's rookie hot streak is just the beginning for Pirates

Valdez has already launched 14 home runs despite playing dramatically fewer games than most National League rookies. His current 162-game pace sits at a ridiculous 66 homers, a number nobody should realistically expect him to maintain.

The power itself, however, looks legitimate. So does the way Valdez uses the entire field. His batted balls have been distributed 31% to the pull side, 41% up the middle and 28% to the opposite field. He isn’t dependent on yanking everything over one fence, which gives him a strong foundation from which to improve.

Contact is also the kind of weakness a 22-year-old hitter can reasonably develop. He spent six seasons climbing through Pittsburgh’s system and only reached Triple-A this year. He is nowhere close to a finished product. That should be the exciting part for the Pirates.

Valdez already understands the strike zone. He already hits the ball extraordinarily hard. He already has game-changing power to every part of the park. Now he has to give himself more opportunities to use it.

If Valdez can even move his contact rate closer to average without sacrificing the patience and power that have made his arrival so remarkable, this will be more than a fun rookie hot streak. It will be the beginning of something sustainable.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow