Estimating what a Konnor Griffin extension would look like for the Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates apparently want to be aggressive this offseason and spend more. Going after free agents and trade targets is one way to channel that aggression, but the easiest thing they could do is extend someone already in the organization. The Pirates should be giving serious consideration to extending their 2024 first-round pick Konnor Griffin, the number one prospect in all of baseball. It would be the simplest way for them to improve the lineup's long-term trajectory and make fans happy by spending some money. The question then becomes: What would an extension for Griffin look like?

Griffin became baseball’s number one prospect after he hit .333/.415/.517 with a .437 wOBA and 165 wRC+ in 2025. Griffin showed off his power and speed, with 21 homers and 65 stolen bases. He also drew a respectable amount of walks, with an 8.9% BB%, and struck out just 21.7% of the time. The most impressive part of his 2025 performance wasn’t just his bottom line, but the fact that he was so good at such a young age, and checked off so many stops on the minor league ladder. 2025 was Griffin’s age-19 season, and he started the year at A-Ball Bradenton. By the end of the season, he had made it all the way to Double-A Altoona. On top of that, Griffin’s wRC+ improved at every level, from 156 at Bradenton, to 170 at Greensboro, and then 175 at Altoona.

Griffin is seen as a five-tool player in the best way possible. Baseball America projects all five of his tools (hit/60, power/70, fielding/60, speed/70, and arm/70) to be 60 or better on the 20-80 scale, all "plus" grades. BA describes a player with a 60 hit and 70 power tool to be a .275-.294 batter with 34-40 home runs. A 70-grade runner is usually found among the 90th percentile or better of sprint speed, and a 60-grade fielder is one who regularly contends for Gold Gloves at their position. 

The Pirates would have to give Konnor Griffin a record-setting contract to extend him.

The low end of a Griffin extension would look something like Luis Robert Jr.’s extension with the Chicago White Sox prior to the 2020 season. He signed a six-year contract worth a guaranteed $50 million. This contract also came with two team options, both worth $20 million. The two option years could also be bought out for $2 million. The maximum value of the contract would have been eight years for $88 million. At the time of Robert’s extension, he was one of baseball’s best prospects, with Baseball America and MLB Pipeline both ranking him among their top three.

The higher end would likely look something like Wander Franco’s extension with the Tampa Bay Rays. That extension has aged poorly because of Franco’s off-field actions, but guaranteed him 11 years and $182 million at the time of execution. That also included a team option for a 12th year, with the max he could receive being 12 years at $223 million (with incentives). Franco wasn’t just the consensus number one prospect in baseball for one year, but earned the honor for two straight seasons in 2020 and 2021. He also signed his contract after he finished third place in Rookie of the Year voting and put up +2.4 fWAR in only 70 games.

The middle ground would likely be something akin to the extension the Milwaukee Brewers gave to Jackson Chourio. The then-top prospect signed an eight-year contract worth $82 million guaranteed. The contract also included two option years valued at $25 million each, along with incentives. That means the most Chourio can make is $142.5 million over 10 years. At the time, Chourio ranked as the second-best prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline and Baseball America. This represents the most a player has ever signed for before making their MLB debut.

In terms of money, Griffin’s extension would probably look more like Chourio’s than Franco’s or Robert Jr.’s. We are talking about the consensus number one prospect. Given that he would be signing a deal before playing one minute in the major leagues, he’ll likely sign for less than $100 million (if the two sides are able to come to terms). 2026 will be Griffin’s age-20 season. Robert Jr. was going into his age-22 season when he committed. Franco inked his deal after his age-20 season (again, spent in MLB), while Chourio signed his record-setting extension entering his age-20 season.

An estimate right now on a theoretical Griffin deal would be eight years, $90 million (not including any incentives or option years). This would cover his first six years under his rookie deal and buy out two of his free agent seasons. The contract would also be backloaded, as that is how most extensions for players who have yet to make their debut/are still very early in their MLB careers are structured. The best way the Pirates could add to their lineup and give fans something to look forward to is by extending Griffin. It’s an easy signing the Pirates could make after supposedly wanting to spend $30-$40 million this offseason. Most of that hasn’t been used up yet, and an 8/$90M contract could still leave the Pirates with plenty of money to spend on a free agent or trade acquisition, based on how a Griffin extension would be set up.