Fangraphs' 2026 Pirates projections send shockwaves across MLB

The Pittsburgh Pirates' team management remains adamant that the organization's goal is to make the playoffs in 2026. Well according to some national projections, that's...actually plausible?

With spring training now underway, Fangraphs has updated their projections for the 2026 season, and their outlook on the Pirates is more optimistic than most. After winning just 71 games last year, the Pirates are projected to win 83 games in the upcoming season.

Eighty-three wins may not seem like huge accomplishment, but it could prove to be a significant benchmark. That's the number that got the Reds into the playoffs via the final Wild Card spot last season, and according to Fangraphs' projections, the same thing would happen with the Pirates in 2026:

The Pirates' projected win total (and playoff odds) is, surprisingly, higher than each of the following teams:

• San Francisco Giants (82-80), who have a star-studded infield but are taking a huge swing with first-year manager Tony Vitello.
• Milwaukee Brewers (82-80), winners of an MLB-high 97 games last year who operate as a small-market contender better than anyone.
• Arizona Diamondbacks (81-81), whose roster consists of three legitimate stars atop their lineup and a ton of questions elsewhere.
• San Diego Padres (80-82), a perennial contender (four playoff appearances in six seasons) whose window may be starting to close.
• Cincinnati Reds (79-83), who snuck into the postseason last year and added Eugenio Suarez to an offense that underwhelmed.

The Pittsburgh Pirates could be legitimate playoff contenders in 2026

There are still some concerns surrounding the Pirates—the team is still looking for a third baseman and a starting pitcher, the Marcell Ozuna signing puts the club's defense in a precarious position, and the Andrew McCutchen saga is creating some negative press (and leaving a bad taste in many fans' mouths).

That ultimately may not matter. The additions the Pirates made this winter—Brandon Lowe, Ryan O'Hearn, Marcell Ozuna, Jake Mangum, and Jhostynxon Garcia on the position player side and Gregory Soto, Mason Montgomery, and Jose Urquidy on the mound—have put the Bucs in a much better position to contend than the team has had since Ben Cherington took over after the 2019 campaign.

The Pirates are hoping to follow the same formula the team used in 2013 to break their playoff drought. That season, Pittsburgh boasted an elite pitching staff (third in MLB in ERA) with a passable offense (17th in OPS) en route to 94 wins and an NLDS appearance. This year's pitching staff clearly has a chance to be one of baseball's best, anchored by the reigning Cy Young winner and now under the tutelage of one of the top young pitching coaches in the sport. The question is whether there have been enough reinforcements added to what was MLB's worst offense last season.

Evidently, Fangraphs believes that to be the case. Even with more moves expected, the Pirates appear to be real playoff contenders. It's time to treat them as such.