Former GM gives Oneil Cruz All-Star nod over impressive Dodgers outfielder

Pittsburgh Pirates fans have been waiting what feels like an eternity for the unicorn known as Oneil Cruz to reach his full potential. One could argue that the 26-year-old still hasn't really scratched the surface of what he could be.

At 6-foot-7, 240 pounds, Cruz looks more like an NFL edge rusher than a center fielder, yet his speed and power combine for an electrifying package that has left fans clamoring for more. Thanks to a broken leg in 2023, Cruz has played just 309 games in his career despite appearing in parts of five seasons.

The baseball world has recognized Cruz's enormous upside, with him ranking ninth in the preseason positional power rankings in center field despite only playing the position for a whopping 23 games before transitioning to center full time this season.

That's why it shouldn't be surprising to see a former MLB general manager give Cruz the All-Star nod in The Athletic's initial All-Star selection projections. In Bowden's predictions, Cruz beats out the Los Angeles Dodgers' breakout star Andy Pages.

By the numbers, this may look ludicrous. Pages is hitting .294/.334/.517 with 15 dingers and some silky-smooth glove work in center. Cruz is batting just .223/.344/.442 with 13 homers but an eye-popping 32.6% strikeout rate.

No doubt, with the exception of batting average, Cruz's numbers are good, but on paper, Pages beats him out in nearly every category. Yet Cruz is the right choice, and there are quite a few reasons why.

Pirates' Oneil Cruz beating out Dodgers' Andy Pages for an All-Star spot is rooted in fact

First, it's important to consider the context these two players play in. The environments couldn't be more different. Pages, 24, is just a guy in the star-studded Dodgers lineup, surrounded by superstars like Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Shohei Ohtani, just to name a few.

Cruz, on the other hand, is surrounded by anchors in the Pirates' lineup, leaving him exposed and devoid of protection. Pitchers rarely give in to him, knowing that his peers will seldom make them pay. Pittsburgh hitters have combined for a 77 wRC+, ranking 29th in the league, a .110 isolated slugging, which ranks dead last, and have scored the fewest runs (235) in the league as of June 18.

The mighty Dodgers, however, rank first in all three of these categories, as well as near the top in many others thanks to their deep and talented lineup. Simply put, Cruz has to be the guy while Pages is simply a guy.

What's more, the underlying metrics tell a bit of a different story. While Pages' performance has been very good, in many ways, Cruz has been elite. The mammoth former shortstop ranks in the 100th percentile in bat speed, exit velocity, hard hit rate, and barrel percentage. His 14.7% walk rate is also stellar, landing him in the 96th percentile. The cherry on top is that Cruz leads the National League with 25 stolen bases, and has been extremely efficient, getting caught just thrice.

Pages, on the other hand, has been much more pedestrian. His 89.1 miles per hour exit velocity ranks in the 36th percentile, his 8.7% barrel rate is just a hair below average, ranking in the 48th percentile, and his hard hit rate of 38.5% is just above the bottom quarter of the league's performers, coming in at the 27th percentile. The biggest disparity between the two players is walks, where Pages' 4.5% rate is a tenth percentile performance.

This isn't to say that Cruz is without flaws. As mentioned, his strikeout rate is astronomically high and is a by-product of the holes in his swing that come from having such long levers that need to be activated with each pitch. That's led to him posting a 34.1% whiff rate, which is worse than 98% of his peers.

If the All-Star Game is about the biggest stars and a showcase of the mind-boggling talent the league has to offer, Cruz is the clear choice, even if his actual production doesn't quite match up. If these two were to reverse locations, it's likely we'd be talking about Pages as a nice, developing young player, and Cruz as a generational superstar.

It's not often that we get to see talent and freakish athleticism like what Oneil Cruz brings to the table, and for that, he deserves a seat at the All-Star table, especially as his back aches from carrying his club's entire offense.