Grading the Spencer Horwitz trade for the Pittsburgh Pirates

What the Guardians are getting from Pirates in Spencer Horwitz trade

The headliner of the trade is Luis Ortiz. Ortiz is coming off a breakout season, pitching to a 3.32 ERA, 4.25 FIP, and 1.11 WHIP. He only struck out 19.2% of his opponents, but saw a huge reduction in walk rate, going from 12% in 2023 to just 7.6% during this previous year. The right-hander also put up a solid 1.06 HR/9 rate. Ortiz made multiple different adjustments to his game in 2024, including adding a cutter to his pitch mix, lowering his arm angle, and adding more movement to his sinker, slider, and four-seam fastball. This led to a Stuff+ rating of 104.

Ortiz’s season, however, did come with some caveats. The 89 MPH exit velocity and 8.8% barrel rate he induced were both below average. ERA estimators did not like his body of work, as he owned a 4.31 xERA, 4.59 xFIP, and 4.38 SIERA. His batting average on balls in play was an abnormally low .243 mark. But Ortiz is only entering his age-26 season and is controlled through 2029. He was also a top 100-ranked prospect heading into the 2023 campaign. There are reasons to believe in his profile moving forward.

Michael Kennedy is one of two left-handed pitching prospects the Pirates are sending in return for Horwitz as well. Kennedy is the better of the two. The former 2022 fourth-round pick spent most of his year at Bradenton, where he pitched to a 4.07 ERA (but 3.73 FIP) and 1.12 WHIP across 73 frames. Kennedy rarely allowed walks, with a 5.3% free pass rate, and paired that with a healthy 26.6% K% and 32.4% whiff rate. He also had an 0.99 HR/9 rate and a 5.1% barrel rate. Kennedy’s strong season for Bradenton led to a late-season promotion to Greensboro, where he pitched 10.1 innings, allowing just one earned run, 15 Ks, and three walks.

Kennedy is not a hard-throwing pitcher, averaging just around 90 MPH with his four-seamer. His best pitch is a slider that sat around 80 MPH with 39 inches of vertical movement and 13 inches of horizontal break. The third pitch of his arsenal is a low-80s changeup with about 37 inches of drop and 11 inches of break. Kennedy displayed strong command over his three offerings this year, with his ability to locate being his best attribute. 

Josh Hartle is the third and final piece of the puzzle heading to Cleveland. The Pirates drafted Hartle in the most recent draft during the third round out of Wake Forest. Hartle entered the college season with first-round aspirations, with some projecting him as a late first-rounder if he could capitalize on his strong 2023 campaign. However, Hartle failed to do so, putting up just a 5.79 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and 3.24 K:BB ratio. Hartle struck out 23.3% of batters with a 7.2% walk rate, but was very prone to home runs. The lefty’s HR/9 clocked in at 1.57. Hartle only appeared in one game for Bradenton in 2024.

Like Kennedy, Hartle is a soft-tosser and averages out around 90 MPH, but his fastball can play up because of its sinking action and his impressive command. Hartle has three offerings to complement his fastball. Of those three, his low-80s sweeping slider is the best, and projects as above-average with plus potential. He’ll also throw a cutter in the upper 80s. Finally, there’s his mid-80s changeup. Currently, only his slider projects as above-average, though Hartle has displayed command that could help some of his offerings play beyond their current outlook.