How the Pirates' rotation could look by the end of 2025

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ biggest strength on their 2025 roster is their pitching staff, more specifically, their starting rotation. They have multiple starters who could be All-Stars this year, and might even go further than that. On top of that, they have plenty of depth in the minor leagues, with a handful of top prospects on their way to the majors. By the end of the 2025 campaign, how will the Pirates’ rotation look?

One thing is almost certain: Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Jared Jones are going to be in the rotation by the end of the season. Nothing short of a catastrophe could likely change that, and, knock on wood, nothing even close to that happens. The first three spots of the rotation are filled, and the fourth could very well be, too.

Projecting Pirates' rotation by end of 2025 season: Who follows Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones?

Bailey Falter currently holds this spot in the rotation, but will almost assuredly see it taken by Bubba Chandler sometime during the first half of the season. Chandler is the Pirates’ top pitching prospect (and one of the best pitching prospects across all of baseball) for a good reason. He had just a 3.08 ERA with an outstanding 30.1% strikeout rate and a career-best 8.6% walk rate through 119.2 innings between Altoona and Indianapolis last year. Chandler ranks as a top ten prospect in the game, per Baseball America, as he throws a plus-plus upper-90s four-seamer, a bevy of above-average or better secondaries, and has steadily improved his command over the last two seasons.

The Pirates also have a potential long-term answer for their No. 5 spot currently held by another soft-tossing lefty. The Pirates signed Andrew Heaney to a one-year contract at the start of spring training, but Chandler isn’t the only consensus top 100 prospect who could open the 2025 campaign at Triple-A while creeping towards MLB. Right-hander Thomas Harrington could rise as well. The right-hander also split his season between Altoona and Indianapolis last year, pitching to a 2.61 ERA, 3.11 FIP, and 0.96 WHIP across 117.1 innings of work.

Harrington struck out about a quarter of opponents in 2024, with a 25.1% K%, but had an outstanding 4.1% walk rate to match. The right-hander was also not prone to allowing the long ball, and had just an 0.69 HR/9. Although Harrington only sits in the low 90s, his slider and changeup are well above-average pitches. His command is only getting better as well. Last season, only 14 pitchers had a walk rate of 5% or lower in 100 innings pitched. Just four of them also struck out at least a quarter of the batters they faced.

There is a scenario in which Heaney stays in the Pirates’ rotation for the whole season. The Pirates would have to be playing well and at least be a Wild Card contender. On top of that, Heaney also will need to perform at a safely above-average level, such as putting up an ERA+ of 110 or greater (meaning his ERA is 10% better than average once you include league/park factors), to retain his job. The veteran lefty is only on a one-year contract. If Heaney is pitching at an average or below-average level, the Pirates would have a lot more to gain by putting Harrington, or one of their multiple other young pitchers, in the rotation in his place, while getting what they can for the southpaw.

The Pirates obviously have a ton of other options that we could see get starts throughout the season. Johan Oviedo shouldn’t miss the entire year, and could be a big help in the second half. Mike Burrows and Braxton Ashcraft are both on the 40-man roster. Hunter Barco has looked great in spring training and had a strong 2024 season. Anthony Solometo could also be an option in the second half if he rebounds. Po-Yu Chen is one of the Pirates’ best-unranked prospects who is a strong depth option if the Pirates need to call upon him.

But by the end of the season, the Pirates’ rotation could house Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, Mitch Keller, and Thomas Harrington. That’s four pitchers who are each 23 years old or younger. Two, Chandler and Harrington, are heading into 2025 as consensus top 100 prospects, while Jones flashed a ton of potential in 2024, and Skenes won Rookie of the Year and was a Cy Young finalist last season. Keller has the lowest ceiling of the bunch, but still has an All-Star Game under his belt, and is a safe bet for average or better production while regularly going 5+ innings in most of his starts.