Is there any chance of redemption for Ke’Bryan Hayes with the Pirates?

Pittsburgh Pirates’ third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes is one of the best defensive players in the entire game. However, his bat has significantly fallen off the last two seasons. It’s an unfortunate turn of events for the infielder, as he started to break out in 2023 when he batted .271/.309/.453 with a .324 wOBA and 100 wRC+ across 525 plate appearances. He was terrific from the start of summer onward, as he put up an .862 OPS, .363 wOBA, and 126 wRC+.

Hayes excelled at the plate in many ways, with 15 home runs and a .182 isolated slugging percentage. His 92.2 MPH exit velocity was in the 93rd percentile. While the third baseman was still only in the 39th percentile of barre rate at 7.4%, that number represented a significant improvement from 2022, when he had a rate of just 3.9%. On top of that, he only had a 21.2% whiff rate, which was in the 72nd percentile.

But Hayes posted just a .573 OPS, .256 wOBA, and 59 wRC+ in 2024 and was limited to just 396 plate appearances. His numbers so far into 2025 look much the same, starting with a .556 OPS, .254 wOBA, and 56 wRC+ throughout his first 277 trips to the dish. Hayes went from a potential power-hitting corner infielder with one of the best gloves in the game to a complete liability in the lineup. 

What has happened since 2023? Is there any chance Hayes can redeem himself while still in Pittsburgh?

The biggest culprit of Hayes’ struggles at the dish are his back problems. He’s had issues with his back in the past, like in 2023 when he missed part of July due to back inflammation, but 2024 gave him a higher degree of trouble. Not only did Hayes have two stints on the IL with back inflammation caused by lower spine issues, but he was also diagnosed with a herniated disc and has chronic back issues. He also didn't get things set on the right foot to start 2025, suffering a minor injury in March.

Can Ke'Bryan Hayes overcome back issues to return to glory with Pirates?

If that sounds scary to Pirates fans, it is. Back issues can be a career killer. For example, star third baseman David Wright’s career was brought to a halt because of a disc in his neck. Future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera was coming off one of the best years of his career in 2016 before being diagnosed with two herniated discs in 2017, and would put up a -2.0 fWAR for the remainder of his career. Former division rival and 2016 MVP Kris Bryant has mostly been sidelined in his time with the Colorado Rockies with back problems. Texas Rangers’ Adolis Garcia was a star in 2023, going to the All-Star Game, smacking 39 home runs and being a Postseason hero before hurting his back. He now has a sub-.700 OPS over the last two seasons.

Hayes himself has even stated he probably “won’t ever be 100%” again. His first-hand accounts, like struggling to lift a heavy gym bag, are evidence of his weakened state, and a look into his Statcast numbers only supports a downturn in strength since the start of 2024. Hayes had a strong 91.3 MPH exit velocity from 2020 through 2023. That ranked 35th among the 253 batters with at least 1,000 plate appearances across those four seasons, better than the likes of Kyle Tucker, Marcell Ozuna, and Pete Alonso. But since then, Hayes only has an 89.4 MPH exit velocity, which only ranks 105th among the 182 batters since the start of 2024 with at least 600 plate appearances.

For what it’s worth, his exit velocity is back in the 90s at 90.2 MPH, and his launch angle went from 4.8 degrees last season to nine degrees this year. But these are still far cries from his 92.2 exit velocity and 13.2-degree launch angle he had in 2023. So is there a solution for Hayes?

The first solution is upping his launch angle. While a 90.2 MPH exit velocity is still a two MPH tick down from his 2023 mark, there are plenty of batters who are still effective while sporting a similar number. There are 30 batters since the start of 2023 with an exit velocity range of 90 and 91 MPH and with a wOBA of at least .320 in 1,000+ plate appearances. The average launch angle between them is about 14.7 degrees.

Hayes’ 13.2-degree launch angle from 2023 is similar to that number, so if he can get back there, he may be able to find his groove again. That would likely constitute a change in his swing, which is where we run into a roadblock. Hayes changed his stance and swing prior to this season to accommodate for his back problems. If his current swing is the best he can do without suffering back pain, then it's much harder for him to make a more substantial mechanical change.

The other solution is back surgery. This is a last-resort option for Hayes because it’s not a guaranteed fix. Plus, his problem is a chronic issue, which isn’t easily fixable via surgery. His best bet may be to wait and see how the previously mentioned Kris Bryant recovers from his recent back surgery in early May. Bryant underwent an ablation procedure to help relieve his pain from degenerative lumbar disk disease in his lower back. This is typically a procedure used to treat irregular heartbeats, but it could also help alleviate back pain, which Hayes struggles with. The cases aren’t one-for-one, and back issue should be taken on a case-by-case basis; still, it could be a last resort for Hayes.

The unfortunate reality is there may not be a fix for Hayes. If there was, the Pirates and Hayes would have done it by now. Back issues can be debilitating and occasional career-killers in the cases of professional athletes, especially in a sport like baseball. When something as small as a slight tweak in a player’s stance and swing can be the difference between a subpar hitter to an All-Star season, a back problem is a scary thing to face (and a near-constant impediment). Hayes is doing his best to work through it, and with the lack of solutions, that may be the only thing he can do right now.