Jim Bowden's Brandon Lowe prediction leaves Pirates with almost no excuse to let him walk

The prevailing sentiment has been that Brandon Lowe's market will be hot this offseason, making it seem like the Pittsburgh Pirates will really have to stretch their budget to retain him. On the field, Lowe has made quite the impact, as 35-homer, Gold Glove-caliber second basemen don't grow on trees.

Throw in his leadership and clubhouse presence, and the fact that his teammates are clamouring for the Pirates to re-sign him, and you have an extremely valuable asset. Perhaps that value exceeds the strength of Pittsburgh's pocketbook.

Spotrac projects Lowe to land a three-year, $68.4 million deal. Given his age, three years seems about right, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him top that number. After all, is $25 million a year all that unreasonable for a player of Lowe's caliber?

When we saw Jim Bowden put together his own projections for The Athletic (subscription required), our jaws hit the floor when we saw his three-year, $45 million forecast. Bowden has a history of some wacky takes, but his predictions can often be on the high side. That made us think twice about what Lowe's market could actually look like.

Brandon Lowe's market could be softer than expected, giving the Pirates no excuse to miss their shot

At $15 million a year, the Pirates should jump all over the deal. If that's truly how things play out and Ben Cherington can't close it, he should get his pink slip the very next day. Lowe made $11.5 million in 2026, so this would only be a modest raise.

As crazy as it sounds, Bowden might have a point here. While the free-agent class overall is considered to be pretty weak, the second base market is pretty strong.

Lowe is the No. 1 option, but at 32 years old, he's not going to be everyone's cup of tea. On top of that, there's a pretty deep pool of other options.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. is coming off a down year, but at the start of 2026, many thought he'd be the headliner. He's got a 30-30 season on his resume, beats Lowe in terms of athleticism, and at 28 years old, he's significantly younger.

Luis Arraez adds a different kind of flavor. Like Lowe, he was historically a poor defender who turned his glove work around in 2026 and is a three-time batting champ. For teams that have established sluggers but need table setters, he could prove to be the most appealing choice.

Then you have Gleyber Torres, who isn't quite in the Lowe-Chisholm tier, but is a viable fallback option and can be an above-average starter.

There's also a wild card who could be thrown into the mix. Across the Pacific, Teruaki Sato is getting all the buzz, but second baseman Shugo Maki could be posted this offseason, too. The 28-year-old NPB star hit 30 homers this season and put up some pretty encouraging underlying metrics.

The potential lockout could also play a role in depressing Lowe's earning potential. In a doomsday scenario where baseball isn't played in 2027, who is going to want to commit big dollars to a guy who will be in his mid-30s by the time he can actually take the field for you?

All of this is to say that Bowden's prediction isn't as crazy as it seems. If Lowe's market truly takes this turn the Pirates will have no excuse to not bring him back. If they don't, they'll prove that they've returned to their penny-pinching ways and prioritizing profits over playoffs.

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