Last year’s Reds offer Pirates a blueprint for improbable September playoff push

For most of the summer, every Pittsburgh Pirates hot streak has come with the same qualifier: too little, too late.

Maybe it still is. But after Sunday's 1-0 win over the Los Angeles Angels, Pittsburgh has finally earned the right to entertain a more interesting question.

What if it isn't?

The Pirates are 71-73 after winning four consecutive series and six of their past seven. They're 4.5 games out of the final National League Wild Card spot with 18 games remaining, hardly an ideal position but also not an unprecedented one. They only need to look within their own division for proof.

Last September, the Cincinnati Reds appeared finished several times over. On Sept. 5, the New York Mets held a six-game advantage over Cincinnati in the Wild Card race, with multiple teams wedged between them. By Sept. 16, the Reds were actually below .500 at 75-76. They made the playoffs anyway.

Cincinnati caught fire, eventually pulling even with New York after winning six of seven. The Reds finished 83-79, tied with the Mets, and claimed the final Wild Card because they owned the season-series tiebreaker. That's the blueprint Pittsburgh has to follow now.

Pirates’ September playoff hopes suddenly look a lot like last year’s Reds

Eighty-three wins may not be guaranteed to be enough again. But 83 wins would require the Pirates to go 12-6 the rest of the way — ambitious, certainly, but not absurd given how they've played lately.

More importantly, Cincinnati's run demonstrated why simply staying alive matters. The Reds couldn't control the Mets' collapse or manufacture help elsewhere in the standings. They just positioned themselves closely enough that when an opening appeared, they could take advantage of it.

The Pirates' upcoming trip to Chicago could determine whether this becomes a legitimate playoff chase or one final September tease. Pittsburgh will play three games against the White Sox before crossing town for three against the Cubs.

The first series represents the type Pittsburgh simply cannot afford to waste. The second offers an opportunity to prove this surge isn't merely the product of a favorable stretch.

Winning series isn't going to be enough forever. At some point, the Pirates need a five- or six-game winning streak. They need to turn a 4.5-game deficit into two games before the calendar starts running out. They need Paul Skenes and the pitching staff to steal games like Sunday's, Konnor Griffin's return to provide another spark and an inconsistent offense to produce just enough.

They'll also need help. So did Cincinnati. On Sept. 5, nobody looking at a six-game deficit would have considered Cincinnati a particularly likely playoff team. Twenty-three days later, the Reds were celebrating.

The Pirates have spent months making their path unnecessarily difficult, but they haven't eliminated it yet. Now comes Chicago — and perhaps their last real chance to turn an improbable chase into something much more serious.

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